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02-Nov-2006
The Joke Revisited by Vic Niederhoffer

There has been some discussion of the jokeful nature of the market, how improbable things happen when you are set up completely for the probable. Nothing better illustrates this then the moves on this first of November. It's invariably the most bullish time of the month, and this month the most bullish of all. No declines of 10 points or more in stocks had occurred in 2-3 months (8/9 -17 pts, 9/6 -11.9 pts), and this was the largest 1 day decline on the first day in a month since 2004 (7/1/04 -14.7 pts).

Making it even more improbable was the backdrop of support with bonds setting a 8 month high at 113-05 on the December future. It occurred after 3 down days, and to thoroughly confuse, yesterday was completely unchanged on the official settlement leaving all counters without a rudder.

A few called me at the beginning of the day. This is such a perfect setup that I'm just going to leave the screen, go out of the office, and count my winning at the end of the day, so I won't be tempted to extricate with just a small profit.

As Berlioz said to Lasseur after he had heard the fifth and said "music like that should never be composed again". "...There's no danger of that..."