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17-Oct-2006
Rational Exuberance, by Victor Niederhoffer

A streak of 11 up moves from the open on a day to the close on the day was broken today by just 0.30. How disheartening to bears who like to wait for one such relief in order to exit their positions. How terrible it must have been to see the big decline of 10 points, from yesterday's close of 1374 to 1364 broken at noonish with a move up to end the day down a mere 2 points. One says this not with any axe. Indeed, one was short thru most of day today, but as an example of the evil, the wickedness, the torture that a market can put one through when on the wrong side, and the rational exuberance that a bull move in a market can take.

  Date     Open     High      Low     Close
10/03/06  1338.6   1347.8   1336.0   1343.2
10/04/06  1341.2   1359.0   1339.8   1358.3
10/05/06  1357.8   1363.2   1356.5   1360.8
10/06/06  1358.4   1360.0   1352.7   1358.8
10/09/06  1357.3   1361.8   1355.1   1359.2
10/10/06  1359.7   1363.0   1357.1   1360.7
10/11/06  1356.4   1362.3   1351.5   1359.1
10/12/06  1362.5   1371.7   1361.8   1370.7
10/13/06  1369.3   1374.7   1368.1   1373.6
10/16/06  1372.6   1378.1   1371.7   1376.1
10/17/06  1372.0   1374.3   1364.1   1371.7