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A True Harbinger, by Victor Niederhoffer
It has been shocking to see the moves in the Israeli Stock market which opens at 9:30 AM and closes at 5:30 PM and is 7 hours ahead of US. It fell 2% on Tue from 826 to 816, then to 782 (down 4%) on Wednesday, while the US was unchanged. Then Thursday, another 4%. On Sunday, after opening down 3%, it went up 7% at the close. Monday and Tuesday were down 1% and up 2% respectively, with another up 1% on Thursday to more than the Wed 7/12 close:
M 7/10 827
T 7/11 816
W 7/12 782
Th 7/13 749
S 7/16 773
M 7/17 766
T 7/18 784
W 7/19 779
Th 7/20 791*
Other markets that showed increased tension before the war and decreased tension starting on Monday were: gold (down $60 Monday and Tuesday) and oil (down about 5 bucks from Sunday open by Tuesday close). Amazingly it was only Tuesday at 3:30 PM that the stock market began to rally -- talk about a hysteretic effect or waiting until the last weak long has capitulated.