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20-Jul-2006
A True Harbinger, by Victor Niederhoffer

It has been shocking to see the moves in the Israeli Stock market which opens at 9:30 AM and closes at 5:30 PM and is 7 hours ahead of US. It fell 2% on Tue from 826 to 816, then  to 782 (down 4%) on Wednesday, while the US was unchanged. Then Thursday, another 4%. On Sunday, after opening down 3%, it went up 7% at the close. Monday and Tuesday were down 1% and  up 2% respectively, with another up 1% on Thursday to more than the Wed 7/12 close:

           M   7/10      827
           T   7/11      816
           W   7/12      782
           Th  7/13      749
           S   7/16      773
           M   7/17      766
           T   7/18      784
           W   7/19      779
           Th  7/20      791*

Other markets that showed increased tension before the war and decreased tension starting on Monday were: gold (down $60 Monday and Tuesday) and oil (down about 5 bucks from Sunday open by Tuesday close). Amazingly it was only Tuesday at 3:30 PM that the stock market began to rally -- talk about a hysteretic effect or waiting until the last weak long has capitulated.

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