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Victor Niederhoffer on the Euro
The recent release of tension in the euro, dropping below one euro = $1.20
then rising to a two-month high at one euro = $1.23, raises numerous questions:
- Is this a setback for certain followers who have been reaping considerable
profits by playing
the dollar from the long side, after losing heavily on short dollar
positions in the $1.30 area? Let us hope
not. All levels of the market ecosystem are sorely needed for it to function
smoothly and accomplish its role of continuing its existence and enabling the
strong to prosper and increase.
- Is this a terrible instantiation of the
market's tendency to punish those who have the hubris to
truly believe that whenever they have a drawdown of 30% or 40%, there is a prospective tendency for a tremendous bounceback?
- The unrealized
losses to the Sage in the second quarter on his dollar position from the first
quarter will now be reversed by at least 25%.
- Will this change in trend be a pilot fish for many other changes in trend,
and which will be the next to turn?
- Is there an inordinate tendency for trends to change given:
- A change in a widely followed trend
- The start of a month
- A period of excessive profits or losses by following
An unusual extreme in stocks
- Seasonal factors relating to the summer
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