Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

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The Chairman
Victor Niederhoffer

4/12/2005
Briefly Speaking: Behind the Form, by Victor Niederhoffer

1. The market awaits the minutes of the Fed meeting of March 22 with bated breath to see how hawkish they were on inflation. Since March 16, and March 22 , the CRB index has gone down 6% and 3% respectively. Talk about the public's being behind the form.

2. The market is down today additionally on a record trade deficit of 61 billion compared to a 59 billion estimate and concomitant weakness of the dollar. But the dollar is actually up about 3/4 percent on the news. Reminds me of all the times that market went down on fixed income rate hikes when interest rates actually went down.

3. I reflect on tax payment week of April 2000 when the market dropped 160 points. That's S&P points. Many other years were grotesque also to a non-random extent. Reminder of who owns most of our lives.

4. Interdisciplinary studies often give most insight to a field as they bring up universal factors and fresh perspectives. The book Regression Methods in Biostatistics by Vittinghoff et al, Springer, 2005, I find helpful.  Nice discussion of exploratory techniques for physicians including the LOWESS Smooth and survival statistics, the most neglected useful method for our field.

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