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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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9/28/04
The Joys of Surfing, by James Sogi
Underwater, you get tossed head over heels, maybe
three times or more and lose all sense of direction.
When you open your eyes all you see is darkness deep
under water. Your shock cord is attached to your leg,
and since the board floats, you can pull the cord and
lead your self to the surface, (as you think back on
your life). Sometimes when the waves are really big
and you pop to the surface there is a foot of foam on
the surface from the turbulence, and as you gasp for
breath as you pop to the surface, you get a lung full
of foam. I love surfing!
9/27/04
Surfing and Markets, by
James Sogi
Big Wave season is coming up. Got to train, get in shape, get
strong...for when you get "caught inside". In the big wave line up and
take off spot you have to sit far enough inside to catch the wave where
it is steep enough, but not so far in that the wave breaks on top of you
and you get "caught inside" and get tossed around like a rag doll in a
washing machine. The waves are as tall as two to three story buildings
and move and sound like freight trains rolling by. They can drag you
underwater for 100 yards and hold you under water for 20-40 seconds. Try
hold your breath that long while jogging: your lungs just about burst.
You've got to position yourself well or you get a rough beating and held
underwater. After getting "caught inside" if you're not strong and in
shape, you're done for the day, exhausted. One rule I've learned the
hard way: never go for the first wave, since waves usually come in sets
of three or more, and if you miss catching the first, and the second is
bigger, you are in a bad spot, and get 'caught inside' and take a mean
beating. After waiting 20 minutes for a set, you're antsy to go, so some
guy paddles for the first one, misses it, and on the horizon 25-30
foot waves loom darkly...caught inside! Its a bad feeling knowing
you're gonna take a bad beating with no way out.
When trading, you want to catch the bottom tick so you have to
start buying while the price is still coming down. It's a dangerous
place. Many knives. If you buy, and there is another wave of selling on
the horizon, (which you can't see coming) you get "caught inside" and
have to endure a rough beating with your position underwater as the
waves of selling exhaust themselves on your head. If you're strong,
you've trained and can hold till the selling lets off, you pop to the
surface. Not many guys have the strength and ability to brave the big
waves. Too much fear, too much danger. You need all the strength and
confidence you can muster. You can drown too so you've got to know what
size you can handle. Another metaphor I like to consider: wait for the
first wave. There will be more opportunities.
Mr E says big volatility coming up. Its like big wave season coming.
Get ready! *
Scito te ipsum* - /Know yourself
/*Sedit qui timuit ne non succederet* - /He who feared he would not
succeed sat still. (For fear of failure, he did nothing.) (Horace)
/*Semper Gumby* - /Always flexible/
