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James Sogi

Philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family.

9/16/2005
Empirical Study of Deficits and Bond Rates, James Sogi

Negative correlation between deficit and 10 year rates of -0.186. Higher the deficit (negative), the greater the borrowing rate. Makes sense.

Test of correlation: Pearson's product-moment correlation

  • data: bonds[, 2] and bonds[, 3]
  • t = -1.2001, df = 40, p-value = 0.2372
  • alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
  • 95 percent confidence interval:
  • -0.4640627 0.1245638
  • sample estimates: cor -0.1864254

  • Null hypothesis not rejected.

    • Data:

    Historical 10 year bond rates 10 years
    Historical deficits.

    c

    Jim Sogi, May 2005

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