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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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James Sogi
4/12/05
The Slithy Toves of the Market
YKCOWREBBAJ
sevot yhtils eht dna ,gillirb sawT`
ebaw eht ni elbmig dna eryg diD
,sevogorob eht erew ysmim llA
.ebargtuo shtar emom eht dnA
She puzzled over this for some time, but at last a bright thought struck her. `Why, it's a Looking-glass book, of course! And if I hold it up to a glass, the words will all go the right way again."
This was the poem that Alice read.
Jabberwocky
`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.
`Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!'
He took his vorpal sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought --
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.
And as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!
One, two! One, two! And through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.
`And has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!
He chortled in his joy.
`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.
Lewis Carroll, "Through the Looking Glass"
A Looking Glass Market
Looking at the understructure of June SP (mini) after the last 18-day Dog House Panic and trying to make sense of the market, had a bright thought .... of Alice. Yes of course, it's a looking glass market, or also called by Magee a reverse head and shoulders, which will be defined as a drop of 25 points or more from open 18 days ago through close ten days ago, and thence a rise of 25 points in the next 7 days.
Since the Panic in the Dog house (new name for the questioned head and shoulders pattern) was followed by a 35-point drop, a test of the reverse head and shoulders seemed appropriate, so when Chair asks, "Er, have you tested that?"
SP Big since 94 will show 118 such occurrences after which:
The following day
59% went down an average 2.8 points,
Std. Dev. 14.24 with significant distribution.
2 days after:
56% averaged 3.4 point drop SD=22, with significant distribution.
( we're at -10 circa 1184 now)
10 days after:
65% gained 11.7 point average, Std. Dev. 46.64
with a significant distribution shown below T=2.7 p=.007.
Which would be ~1209 in a week.
The decimal point is 1 digit(s) to the right of the |
-10 | 3
-8 | 33
-6 | 120
-4 | 7644375531
-2 | 975552966541
-0 | 9765221109876
0 | 123334455667789902334567789
2 | 0222245578889900123577899
4 | 01267801468
6 | 014468
8 | 006
10 | 76
12 | 8
14 | 2
16 | 3
"The Red Queen shook her head. "You may call it 'nonsense' if you like," she said, "but I've heard nonsense, compared with which that would be as sensible as a dictionary!'" (Those who know about running in place will certainly recognize the quote.)
James Sogi is a philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family