Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner

12-Jun-2006
Lessons in Humility, from James Sogi

I play music with some guys that are very talented. The guitar player plays like Stevie Ray Vaughn and used to play in one of the top Hawaiian show bands of the 70's. The drummer's dad was in Canned Heat and played at Woodstock and knew Jimi Hendrix. It is intimidating playing with these pros. The surfers I surf with are better than I. One kid is the current junior world champion. Shano was rated 4th in the world pro circuit. All the young guys rip it up better than I. The guys on the list I know trade better than I, program better, know more math and statistics. It's all very humbling. So this weekend I went to Maui to try learn wind surfing. All the beautiful windsurfers from around the world congregate at Hookipa, the Everest of the windsurfing world, and step off the beach onto their sleek boards and rocket off at 35 miles per hour without wetting their hair. Meanwhile at the beach I am stumbling around falling off a fat beginners board with a little tiny sail. Another serving of humble pie. At last, I got the hang of it.

On Thursday, the 40-point drop was humbling, to say the least and brings one's weaknesses and fallibility to the foreground for immediate review. There is always room to learn. Learn from the best. The more you know, the more you know you don't know. Have humility. Today's 20-point drop was an excellent teacher on the virtues of humility. It's all for the better. I'll try to get the hang of it.

So with the risk of hubris well in mind, enter my concurrence that the probabilities favor a rally and all that entails. This seems to one of the panics that take place with the regularity of the seasons, sometimes as often as several times a year. During these periods it is good to buy some quality stocks at a good price and put them away and rest on the oars a while. By and by, when there is an overplus thereof, perhaps put some of it into income producing real estate. Retire in the bosom of your family in your stately mansion.