Commentary: Ace
the Final Exam? Not Exactly.
We tripped down the stretch. The Santa Claus
rally never came,
only the Grinch. What was it
about $30 billion of
Internet Christmas Shopping
that the market didn't like?
2005 turned in a small gain, the same as 2004. If
they had been fish, we'd have thrown them back.
2005 didn't even have 2004's excuse of coming
after a big year, one in which the GTI had more
than doubled.
At least we didn't lose money, which we've been
known to do, big time.
The GTI's 5.1% return merits a final grade of 60.
It's not much, but it's passing -- we won't have to repeat the year. And
we're still in the game, which
Mike Ditka tells us is big.
As they say, better luck next year, and Happy
New Year to all!
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| MVIS | + 7.8% | PWER | - 9.5% |
| IKAN | + 5.3% | FNSR | - 8.4% |
| SYNA | + 0.5% | BWNG | - 6.6% |
| AMD | + 0.3% | FLEX | - 5.3% |
| EQIX | + 0.1% | NSM | - 4.0% |
The Week Day by Day:
Let's hope the bulls have had a good rest.
They
have some heavy lifting to do in 2006. It's time to
get this Telecosm moving.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): -
2.3%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 2.0%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 1.6%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| Avg for 8+ yrs | 10.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% |
| Last 52 wks | 5% | 1% | 3% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 78% | - 56% | - 18% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
272% | 98% | 61% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There are now 27 companies in the GTI.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
5 up, 21 down, 1 unchanged.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 | 2.1% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 | 26 of 52 | 50% |
The GTI
fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt