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Dec. 17, 2004
Dick Sears:
Weekly Commentary
Two More Weeks to Go
The week started
well, with not a drop of
red ink for the first three days, but it was
all
downhill from there.
Nevertheless, the GTI finished with a small
gain. It was just enough to put it back into
the black for the year. There are two more
weeks to go, as it races toward the finish
line. With a little luck, 2004 can still go
into
the books as an OK year.
Whatever happens over the last two weeks,
2004 will surely turn out to be the GTI's
first
moderate year. Like the little girl who had
a
little curl right in the middle of her
forehead,
the GTI has heretofore been either very,
very
good (up 284% in 1999 and 130% in 2003),
or it has been horrid (down 44%, 43%, and
56% in 2000 to 2002).
So this will be our first ho-hum year, the
first time we're neither over the moon nor
in the dumps.
One recent bright spot has been Broadwing
(formerly Corvis). It was up 18% this week
and is up 60% for the last six weeks.
Broadwing has been a source of much
anguish for Gilder investors. Wouldn't it be
nice if it were finally on its way?
Returns for Week Ended
December
17
Gilder
Technology Index (GTI):
+ 0.9%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):
+ 0.3%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):
+ 0.5%
Historical Returns
|
|
GTI |
NSD |
S&P |
|
1997 (est'd) |
21% |
22% |
31% |
|
1998 (est'd) |
48% |
40% |
27% |
|
1999 |
284% |
86% |
20% |
|
2000 |
- 44% |
- 39% |
- 10% |
|
2001 |
- 43% |
- 21% |
- 13% |
|
2002 |
- 56% |
- 32% |
- 23% |
|
2003 |
130% |
50% |
26% |
|
2004 YTD |
0.1% |
6.6% |
7.4% |
|
Avg for 7+ yrs |
10.5% |
6.5% |
6.2% |
|
Last 52 wks |
4% |
9% |
10% |
Since the high
of 3/06/00 |
- 79% |
- 58% |
- 22% |
Since the low
of 10/09/02 |
246% |
92% |
54% |
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