Commentary:
Five More Shopping Days Until Christmas . . .
. . . or maybe it's seven. It's been such a long
time since I heard the expression that I can't
remember whether Saturdays count.
Whatever happened to the Christmas shopping
days countdown? There are other
countdowns
to Christmas, but not that one.
Did you know that the person who coined the
phrase "shopping days until Christmas" was the
same person who came up with "the customer
is always right"? You can find it
here.
But back to my question, why has the shopping
days countdown disappeared? Is it because of
merchants' fear of offending by saying the "C"
word? Certainly "shopping days until holiday"
wouldn't cut it, but I doubt that's the answer.
Personally, I finished my Christmas shopping a
month ago. Any merchant who sought to inform
me now as to how many days were left would be
wasting his breath and ink.
As a young man in Boston, I was a notorious
last-minute shopper. You could always find me
in Filene's or
Bonwit's
at 5:00 on Christmas Eve.
Now you can't even find them. But if you could,
I wouldn't be there. I do my shopping on the
Internet, and there's your answer. Everything
is easier with the Internet.
And when the Internet Christmas sales figures
come in, maybe the market will give us that big
surge we've been waiting for. Maybe Santa will
even shower the riches of the Telecosm on us,
as George has prophesied.
Until then, there are only eight more eggnog
days until Christmas. Gotta go!
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| NETL | + 6.4% | BWNG | - 5.6% |
| AMD | + 4.7% | KEYW | - 5.2% |
| MVIS | + 2.5% | CPHD | - 5.0% |
| XLNX | + 2.0% | LNOP | - 4.0% |
| SKM | + 1.6% | WIND | - 3.7% |
The Week Day by Day:
Unlike me, Santa is running late.
Santa Baby,
come on!
We need a little Christmas! You
have one more week to fill the stock(ing)s.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): -
0.7%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 0.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 0.6%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 to Date | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% |
| Avg for 8+ yrs | 10.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| Last 52 wks | 10% | 5% | 6% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 77% | - 55% | - 17% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
280% | 102% | 63% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 to Date | 14.8% | 6.4% |
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
12 up, 16 down, 0 unchanged.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 to Date | 2.1% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 to Date | 25 of 50 | 50% |
The GTI
fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt