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Dec. 10, 2004

Dick Sears: Weekly Commentary
A Narrow Escape

It was a scary week for the GTI.

After being up seven weeks in a row, it was
reasonable to expect a setback. The market
rarely goes so long without exacting its
tribute. But this time it looked as if the
market had a more serious revenge in mind.

First Texas Instruments, and then Altera and
Xilinx, lowered their guidance. The chips
were in shambles, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.5% in two and
a half days. By noon on Thursday, the GTI
had given back almost half of what it had
gained over the last seven weeks. Things
looked bad for the home team.

But National Semi, bless them, stepped up
to the plate with a good earnings report.
Suddenly bargain hunters descended on
the market, shopping as if it were the day
after Christmas. The morning's deep loss
turned into a small gain. The rout was
averted, at least for the time being.

Yes, the GTI is back in the red for the year,
but not by much. And there are three more
weeks to go in the year, plenty of time to
finish with a decent gain.

But it's time for the rally caps.


Returns for Week Ended December 10

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 2.3%
 Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.9%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.3%


 Historical Returns

 

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002  - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004 YTD   - 0.8% 6.2%    6.8%
Avg for 7+ yrs  10.4%  6.5% 6.1%
Last 52 wks 3% 9% 11%
Since the high
of 3/6/00 		- 80% - 58% - 22%
Since the low
of 10/9/02 		243% 91% 53%