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Dec. 3, 2004

Dick Sears: Weekly Commentary
Seven Up

Thanks to a run of seven good weeks, the GTI is back in the black for 2004.

It started the year well, as it almost always does, and by January 20 it was up 19%. But then came a long disheartening slide, and by August 12 it was down 26%. It is now up 4%.

The GTI's seven-week winning streak ties its longest ever, set (twice) in 1999. This time the GTI has gained 19%. The prior streaks produced gains of 31% and 35%. Sure, the good old days were better, but let's not forget how they ended, and their bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

In any event, how can we be anything but delighted at our recent progress? Even Broadwing has been on a tear, up 32% this week. And if KEYW, LNOP, and SYNA hadn't all been in a state of "correction" to pay for recent exuberance, the week would have been even better.

And with a lot of new money coming into the market, such as the $30 billion one-time dividend to Microsoft shareholders, and the rumored hefty Wall Street bonuses, there's reason to hope this rally has room to go.

And we're a long way from any bubble, I think. With the NASDAQ down 57%, and the S&P 22%, compared to where they were almost five years ago, it's hard to call us overbought today.

Returns for Week Ended December 3

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 3.7%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 2.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 0.7%