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Thanks to a run
of seven good
weeks, the GTI
is back in the
black for 2004.
It started
the year well,
as it almost
always does, and
by January 20 it
was up 19%. But
then came a long
disheartening
slide, and by
August 12 it was
down 26%. It is
now up 4%.
The GTI's
seven-week
winning streak
ties its longest
ever, set
(twice) in 1999.
This time the
GTI has gained
19%. The prior
streaks produced
gains of 31% and
35%. Sure, the
good old days
were better, but
let's not forget
how they ended,
and their
bubble, bubble,
toil and
trouble.
In any event,
how can we be
anything but
delighted at our
recent progress?
Even Broadwing
has been on a
tear, up 32%
this week. And
if KEYW, LNOP,
and SYNA hadn't
all been in a
state of
"correction" to
pay for recent
exuberance, the
week would have
been even
better.
And with a
lot of new money
coming into the
market, such as
the $30 billion
one-time
dividend to
Microsoft
shareholders,
and the rumored
hefty Wall
Street bonuses,
there's reason
to hope this
rally has room
to go.
And we're a
long way from
any bubble, I
think. With the
NASDAQ down 57%,
and the S&P 22%,
compared to
where they were
almost five
years ago, it's
hard to call us
overbought
today.
Returns for Week
Ended
December 3
Gilder
Technology Index
(GTI):
+ 3.7%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD):
+ 2.2%
S&P 500 Index
(S&P):
+ 0.7%
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