Weekly Commentary: Krakatoa!
For the first three days this week, the
market
rumbled like a volcano. Stoked by good news
and pre-market enthusiasm, it looked as if it
might erupt at any moment. Instead it just fizzled.
By cracky! The explosion came Thursday, and it
was like the Fourth of July (or Christmas), with a
2.7% gain for the GTI. Friday was neither here nor
there, but at least we didn't give anything back.
This makes five good weeks in a row for the GTI.
In each of them it has significantly outperformed
the NASDAQ. Since the first of November, the GTI
has gained 14.6%, the NASDAQ 7.5%.
Of course, the GTI is expected to outperform the
NASDAQ in a good market. It consists of higher
beta (riskier) stocks. The last five weeks have
been above and beyond, however.
With the Semiconductor Index (SOX) at a 52-week
high, it is not surprising that many Gilder stocks
set new 52-week highs this week, namely A, AMD,
BRCM, NETL, NSM, QCOM, TSM, and ZRAN. Not
far off are ADI, CPHD, GLW, INTC, and TXN.
Microvision (MVIS), on the other hand, set a new
low this week, not easy to do in this market.
The following is a new feature being added to the
site this week.
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers:
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| JDSU | + 11.2% | MVIS | - 10.2% |
| NSM | + 7.7% | KEYW | - 7.2% |
| NETL | + 7.1% | BWNG | - 2.6% |
| TXN | + 6.1% | LNOP | - 2.4% |
| AMD | + 5.4% | QCOM | - 2.1% |
The Week Day by Day:
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 1.6%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 0.5%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 0.2%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 to Date | 10.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Avg for 8+ yrs | 10.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
| Last 52 wks | 11% | 6% | 6% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 77% | - 55% | - 17% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
290% | 104% | 63% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 to Date | 17.7% | 8.6% |
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
17 up, 10 down, 1 unchanged.