Dick Sears Commentary:
Working on a Deadline
The World Series begins tomorrow, with all of the
games to be played at night. That puts a lot of
pressure on the sportswriters for the morning
papers. To meet their deadlines, they have to file
their copy almost before the game ends.
Obviously, most of the writing has to be done
while the game is going on. And it must be
rewritten whenever the game changes direction.
Then, when you think you're all set, someone hits
a game-winning home run with two outs in the
ninth, and you're back to square one.
It's much the same for me. My 4:30 deadline on
Friday is self-imposed, but I consider it sacred.
It leaves me only 30 minutes after the market
closes, and I need almost all of that just to
put together the numbers and charts. So the
commentary has to be ready to roll before
the market closes.
Usually I can do a lot of it during the week, the
same as a sportswriter. But the stock market has
a million twists and turns, and I often wind up
screaming, "Get me
rewrite," like a character in
an old movie.
Now we're in the earnings season. That makes
the market more volatile than usual, which
causes me even more rewrite problems.
But I look forward to earnings season. It's an
important dose of reality for stock prices. If you're
an optimist, like me, you welcome that reality.
There's little the bears can do to dismiss a good
earnings report.
So, come on, Gilder stocks, do as
Broadwing is
doing (29% in two weeks). This earnings season,
hit it out of the park. I'll be glad to rewrite.
The Market This Week:
One day up, one day down, the next day up.
That's how the ice breaks up, that's how a rally
starts. All we need are good earnings reports.
Returns for the
Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 0.4%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 0.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 0.6%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 to Date | - 3.4% | - 4.3% | - 2.7% |
| Avg for 8+ yrs | 9.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Last 52 wks | 13% | 9% | 8% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 80% | - 59% | - 23% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
242% | 87% | 52% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 to Date | 3.8% | - 6.4% |
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
12 up, 15 down, 1 unchanged.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 to Date | 2.1% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 to Date | 20 of 42 | 48% |
The GTI
fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.