10/21/2005

Dick Sears  Commentary:  Working on a Deadline

The World Series begins tomorrow, with all of the
games to be played at night. That puts a lot of
pressure on the sportswriters for the morning
papers. To meet their deadlines, they have to file
their copy almost before the game ends.

Obviously, most of the writing has to be done
while the game is going on. And it must be
rewritten whenever the game changes direction.

Then, when you think you're all set, someone hits
a game-winning home run
with two outs in the
ninth, and you're back to square one.

It's much the same for me. My 4:30 deadline on
Friday is self-imposed, but I consider it sacred.
It leaves me only 30 minutes after the market
closes, and I need almost all of that just to
put together the numbers and charts. So the
commentary has to be ready to roll before
the market closes.

Usually I can do a lot of it during the week, the
same as a sportswriter. But the stock market has
a million twists and turns, and I often wind up
screaming, "Get me rewrite," like a character in
an old movie.

Now we're in the earnings season. That makes
the market more volatile than usual, which
causes me even more rewrite problems.

But I look forward to earnings season. It's an
important dose of reality for stock prices. If you're
an optimist, like me, you welcome that reality.
There's little the bears can do to dismiss a good
earnings report.

So, come on, Gilder stocks, do as Broadwing is
doing (29% in two weeks). This earnings season,
hit it out of the park. I'll be glad to rewrite.


The Market This Week:

 


One day up, one day down, the next day up.
That's how the ice breaks up, that's how a rally
starts. All we need are good earnings reports. 


Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 0.4%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.6%


Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 3.4% - 4.3% - 2.7%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.3%  5.6% 5.4%
Last 52 wks 13% 9% 8%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 80% - 59% - 23%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
242% 87% 52%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6% - 3.3%
2005 to Date 3.8% - 6.4%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
12 up, 15 down, 1 unchanged.

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 to Date 2.1%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 to Date 20 of 42 48%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.