After I wrote here a week ago, a nor'easter came
to the New York area. So far it has dropped more
than a foot of chilling rain on us. The typical
nor'easter lasts three days, but this one is like an
unwelcome house guest that just won't leave.
But we do need the rain. We've already received
over three months' worth, which is about as long
our drought had lasted.
The rain fall was matched by a fall in stock prices.
The first three days of the week were in fact a
perfect storm of bad days. Fortunately they
obeyed the nor'easter rules and departed after
three days. But in the process, Wall Street gave
us as much of a soaking as the heavens did. The
result was our second horrible week in a row.
The embodiment of our troubles was Hurricane
Xilinx, which came ashore before the market
opened on Monday. After a chilling downward
adjustment in forecasted revenues, XLNX
opened the week down 13% and then finished it
down 18%. All of the chip stocks suffered, with
the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX)
down 4.0% for the week.
There's an old adage that says one should sell
on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur.
Except that some people say the adage goes the
other way around. Whichever, the holy days have
ended, and the storm is said to be almost over.
It's time for gaiety and sunshine on Wall Street.
The Market This Week:
Once again, TGIF.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): - 2.9%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD): - 1.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 0.8%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 to Date | - 3.8% | - 5.1% | - 2.1% |
| Avg for 8+ yrs | 9.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| Last 52 wks | 16% | 8% | 7% |
|
Since the high of 3/06/00 |
- 80% | - 59% | - 22% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
241% | 85% | 53% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 to Date | 2.9% | - 6.1% |
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
8 up, 20 down, 0 unchanged.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 to Date | 2.1% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 to Date | 19 of 41 | 46% |
The GTI
fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.