9/30/2005

Dick Sears  Commentary:  7th Inning Stretch

The seventh inning stretch in a baseball game
comes almost exactly three-quarters of the way
through the regulation nine innings.

Since today marks the end of the third quarter of
the calendar year, one could say it's the stock
market's seventh inning stretch. I know it's not a
perfect analogy, but I have baseball on the brain.

With the GTI still hovering around the breakeven
point for the year (it's up 3%), how 2005 turns
out is very much up for grabs. Everything will
come down to the last three months, just as the
last three games this weekend will decide the
season for the Boston Red Sox.

The Sox may face an uphill struggle against the
Yankees, but for the GTI the meat of the order is
coming up. The final quarter of the year is almost
always a good one, as this table shows:

Year 4th Quarter
Return
2004 + 21%
2003 + 20%
2002 + 28%
2001 + 47%
2000 -  47%
1999 + 73%

Unless we get a replay of 2000 (cf. Bucky Dent)
2005 should be a good year for the GTI.

BTW, if Boston loses this weekend, don't waste
your tears on me. What they did a year ago will
last me a lifetime:



While we're waiting to see how the GTI season
plays out, here are the third quarter company
by company stats (ignoring as always periods
before a company joined the GTI or after it has
been removed):

  3rd Quarter

 

          Year to Date

JDSU

46%

 

GLW

78%

 in 3/25

AMD

45%

 

NETL

77%

 in 1/28

A

42%

 

NSM

46%

 

QCOM

37%

 

BRCM

45%

 

BRCM

32%

 

TXN

38%

 

NETL

22%

 

A

36%

 

TXN

21%

 

ZRAN

23%

 

NSM

19%

 

TERN

20%

 out 6/3

GLW

17%

 

AMD

14%

 

MVIS

16%

 

SKM

9%

 in 2/11

XLNX

10%

 

KEYW

7%

 

BWNG

8%

 

INTC

6%

 

GTI

8%

 

QCOM

6%

 

ZRAN

8%

 

TSM

6%

 

SKM

7%

 

CHRT

4%

 out 2/11

CPHD

1%

 

GTI

3%

 

ADI

0%

 

ADI

1%

 

TSM

- 2%

 

EQIX

- 3%

 

FLEX

- 3%

 

S

- 4%

 

ALTR

- 3%

 

WIND

- 5%

 

EQIX

- 4%

 

XLNX

- 6%

 

INTC

- 4%

 

FLEX

- 7%

 

S

- 5%

 

ALTR

- 8%

 

KEYW

- 5%

 

MVIS

- 16%

 

SYNA

- 12%

 

SMI

- 20%

 

PWER

- 12%

 

CPHD

- 26%

 

SMI

- 17%

 

JDSU

- 30%

 

WIND

- 18%

 

PWER

- 38%

 

LNOP

- 18%

 

SYNA

- 39%

 
     

BWNG

- 45%

 
     

LNOP

- 54%

 

The Market This Week:
 


A couple of clutch hits late in the game saved the
day, and the GTI extended to eight its streak of
beating the NASDAQ. Hmm. Is that an omen for
the Yankees, who are seeking to win the AL East
for the eighth straight time? Curses!

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 2.1%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 1.6%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 1.1%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  3.1% - 1.1% 1.4%
Avg for 8+ yrs  10.2%  6.0% 6.0%
Last 52 wks 21%  11% 9%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 78% - 57% - 20%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
265% 93% 58%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6% - 3.3%
2005 to Date 11.7% 0.8%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
19 up, 8 down, 1 unchanged.

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 to Date 2.0%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 to Date 19 of 39 49%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.