Dick Sears Commentary:
7th Inning Stretch
The seventh inning stretch in a baseball game
comes almost exactly three-quarters of the way
through the regulation nine innings.
Since today marks the end of the third quarter of
the calendar year, one could say it's the stock
market's seventh inning stretch. I know it's not a
perfect analogy, but I have baseball on the brain.
With the GTI still hovering around the breakeven
point for the year (it's up 3%), how 2005 turns
out is very much up for grabs. Everything will
come down to the last three months, just as the
last three games
this weekend will decide the
season for the Boston Red Sox.
The Sox may face an uphill struggle against the
Yankees, but for the GTI the meat of the order is
coming up. The final
quarter of the year is almost
always a good one, as this table shows:
| Year | 4th Quarter Return |
| 2004 | + 21% |
| 2003 | + 20% |
| 2002 | + 28% |
| 2001 | + 47% |
| 2000 | - 47% |
| 1999 | + 73% |
Unless we
get a replay of 2000
(cf. Bucky Dent)
2005 should be a good year for the GTI.
BTW, if Boston loses this weekend, don't waste
your tears on me. What
they did a year ago will
last me a lifetime:
While we're waiting to see how the GTI season
plays out, here are the third quarter company
by company stats (ignoring as always periods
before a company joined the GTI or after it has
been removed):
|
3rd Quarter |
Year to Date |
||||
|
JDSU |
46% |
GLW |
78% |
in 3/25 |
|
|
AMD |
45% |
NETL |
77% |
in 1/28 |
|
|
A |
42% |
NSM |
46% |
||
|
QCOM |
37% |
BRCM |
45% |
||
|
BRCM |
32% |
TXN |
38% |
||
|
NETL |
22% |
A |
36% |
||
|
TXN |
21% |
ZRAN |
23% |
||
|
NSM |
19% |
TERN |
20% |
out 6/3 |
|
|
GLW |
17% |
AMD |
14% |
||
|
MVIS |
16% |
SKM |
9% |
in 2/11 |
|
|
XLNX |
10% |
KEYW |
7% |
||
|
BWNG |
8% |
INTC |
6% |
||
|
GTI |
8% |
QCOM |
6% |
||
|
ZRAN |
8% |
TSM |
6% |
||
|
SKM |
7% |
CHRT |
4% |
out 2/11 |
|
|
CPHD |
1% |
GTI |
3% |
||
|
ADI |
0% |
ADI |
1% |
||
|
TSM |
- 2% |
EQIX |
- 3% |
||
|
FLEX |
- 3% |
S |
- 4% |
||
|
ALTR |
- 3% |
WIND |
- 5% |
||
|
EQIX |
- 4% |
XLNX |
- 6% |
||
|
INTC |
- 4% |
FLEX |
- 7% |
||
|
S |
- 5% |
ALTR |
- 8% |
||
|
KEYW |
- 5% |
MVIS |
- 16% |
||
|
SYNA |
- 12% |
SMI |
- 20% |
||
|
PWER |
- 12% |
CPHD |
- 26% |
||
|
SMI |
- 17% |
JDSU |
- 30% |
||
|
WIND |
- 18% |
PWER |
- 38% |
||
|
LNOP |
- 18% |
SYNA |
- 39% |
||
|
BWNG |
- 45% |
||||
|
LNOP |
- 54% |
||||
The
Market This Week:
A couple of clutch hits late in the game saved the
day, and the GTI extended to eight its streak of
beating the NASDAQ. Hmm. Is that an omen for
the Yankees, who are seeking to win the AL East
for the eighth straight time? Curses!
Returns for the
Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 2.1%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 1.6%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 1.1%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 to Date | 3.1% | - 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Avg for 8+ yrs | 10.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Last 52 wks | 21% | 11% | 9% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 78% | - 57% | - 20% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
265% | 93% | 58% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 to Date | 11.7% | 0.8% |
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
19 up, 8 down, 1 unchanged.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 to Date | 2.0% |
As an indication of trend, this
table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 to Date | 19 of 39 | 49% |
The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.