9/23/2005

Dick Sears  Commentary:  Weather Report

The summer came to an end on Thursday, as did
the GTI's worst four-day performance since the
middle of April.

I hate to see the summer over, and I hate to see
the market stumble. As they say, it never rains
but it pours. 

Nevertheless it was an OK summer for the
market. From the summer solstice to the
autumnal equinox, the GTI was up 2.2%, the
NASDAQ was up 1.1%, and the S&P was down
0.1%. And if Friday is any indication, we're in for
a good autumn.

The wild card at the moment is the weather. As
I write, we don't know where Hurricane Rita will
come ashore or how much damage it will do.
It's likely to be pretty bad, maybe even as bad
as Hurricane Katrina. And who knows what other
ugly surprises Mother Nature has in store for us?
She hasn't been very maternal lately.

As hard as these storms are on the victims,
they're unlikely to do any long term damage to
the economy, which means the market should
soon resume its upward flow. The rain will stop,
the sun will shine, the bulls will come out to play.

In another ritual of autumn, my Red Sox are in the
midst of a collapse that may leave them idle come
October. Don't count on it, though. These are not
your father's Red Sox.

BTW, this is the second Friday in a row with a
late rally that turned the day from bad to good.
I don't want to seem ungrateful, and nobody
enjoys a rally more than I do, but please, not
Friday afternoon, not after I've got the GTI all
written. And especially not when I'm trying to
watch the Presidents Cup on television.

The Market Day by Day

Not much of a week, but it could be worse. It
could be raining. I know it doesn't provide much
consolation, but the GTI did beat the NASDAQ for
the seventh week in a row. That usually means
an up market.

Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.9%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 2.0%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 1.8%

 

Historical Returns GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  1.1% - 2.7% 0.3%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.9%  5.8% 5.8%
Last 52 wks 23%  13% 9%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 79% - 58% - 20%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
258% 90% 56%

Makeup of the GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.

Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
8 up, 20 down, 0 unchanged.

 

The Year to Date



From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now



Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks




Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks

 

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 to Date 2.0%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 to Date 18 of 38 47%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.