Dick Sears Weekly Commentary

9/16/05

Commentary:  El Nardo

Over the last 50 years, September has been the
market's worst month. This year the news must
have arrived late, because through the first 13
days of the month, the GTI was up 3.5%. Now it
may be reverting to form, though Friday's late
rally was encouraging.

It's disappointing to be back in the doldrums
after the month began so well. Bull markets
aren't supposed to behave that way. So let's
move on to a sunnier topic.

Villajoyosa is a colorful fishing village on Spain's
Costa Blanca.
It's a fine place for a vacation, with
good food, a sandy beach, and an elegant small
five-star resort hotel.



But what makes me treasure Villajoyosa (besides
the bullfighting in nearby Alicante) is the Nardo,
an enchanting absinthe concoction served there.

Everyone in Villajoyosa drinks Nardos. They can
be found in both ice cream parlors and bars. Yet
five miles out of town, no one has ever heard of
the Nardo. It's a well kept secret, and if you'd ever
had one, you too might want to keep it secret,
lest you lose something private and special.

Undoubtedly named after the man who invented
it (Nardo is a nickname for Bernardo), the drink is
a mixture of coffee granita and absinthe. It is just
the thing for a lazy morning on holiday. Not only
does It taste great. It also confers mental clarity
and a sense of well being.

Until I did some research for this commentary,
I'd assumed that the Nardo's magic was merely
the result of its unusual combination of caffeine,
sugar, and alcohol. But Irish Coffee has them too,
and it never gave me the bang that a Nardo does.
It never made the grass look greener (no small
feat in arid Spain).

Now I realize that the secret to the Nardo's effect
lies in absinthe's psychoactive ingredients. Little
did I know! It's fortunate that I lack an addictive
personality.

Absinthe, the storied drink of Van Gogh, Wilde,
Poe, and other late 19th century bons vivants
(some might say dissolutes), was eventually
outlawed on medical grounds. It was held
responsible for various forms of dementia.

But I wonder. The symptoms blamed on absinthe
(convulsions, hallucinations, psychotic behavior)
might also describe third-stage syphilis, no doubt
a common ailment among devotees of absinthe.
Mightn't absinthe have served as a convenient
scapegoat for the victims and their families?

The Nardo can be made at home. If you'd like
instructions, just ask.

But now I must rush off to make a batch myself.
We have houseguests arriving from Rome.
 

The Market Day by Day

In a dispiriting midweek slump, every day went
from good to bad to worse. But Friday saved the
week. No harm, no foul. TGIF. By the way, this
makes six weeks in a row the GTI has beaten
the NASDAQ. It helped that JDSU was up 15.5%.

Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 0.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.3%

 

Historical Returns GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  3.0% - 0.7% 2.1%
Avg for 8+ yrs  10.2%  6.1% 6.1%
Last 52 wks 22%  13% 10%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 78% - 57% - 19%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
265% 94% 59%

Makeup of the GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI.

Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
9 up, 18 down, 1 unchanged.

 

The Year to Date



The GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to the Present



The GTI's Weekly Change, Last 52 Weeks




Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks

 

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 to Date 2.0%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 to Date 18 of 37 49%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its