Commentary:
Good Sportsmanship
It's been five months since the GTI was up two
weeks in a row. This week was no different.
After an 11.1% pop last week, the GTI coasted
to a 1.8% loss this week, which put it back
in the red for the year. The wall of worry is
a slippery slope.
But perhaps we're just gracious winners.
We don't pile on, or hit our opponent when
he's down, or rub it in.
Certainly grace is a good thing, but if our
opponent doesn't hold back, why must we?
The market clobbers us one week, and then
comes right back and does it again the next.
It reminds me of how the Yankees took
all five
games in Boston last week, outscoring the
Red Sox 49 to 26. We were at home. Couldn't
they have thrown us a bone?
Speaking of losing efforts, Microvision (MVIS)
is the GTI's worst stock this week for the tenth
time this year. What with a 49% loss last year
and a 65% loss so far this year, it has fallen
82% since it joined the GTI 3½ years ago.
Microvision may turn out to be aptly named.
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| IKAN | + 5.8% | MVIS | - 11.2% |
| CPHD | + 3.9% | NETL | - 7.2% |
| GLW | + 3.9% | LNOP | - 5.8% |
| SYNA | + 3.1% | TSM | - 5.7% |
| INTC | + 2.7% | SMTL | - 5.5% |
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): - 1.8%
Nasdaq Composite Index
(NSD): - 1.1%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 0.6%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | - 0.4% | - 2.9% | 3.7% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 9.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| Last 52 wks | 6% | 1% | 7% |
|
Since the high of 3/06/00 |
- 78% | - 58% | - 15% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
271% | 92% | 67% |
Comparison of Returns for GTI
Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | - 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 6.5% | 1.3% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
17% | 26% | 69% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
354% | 136% | 18% |
Graph of the GTI's long
recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
46% |
GLW |
11% |
QCOM |
-13% |
||
|
ALTR |
2% |
IKAN |
-20% |
S |
-23% |
||
|
AMD |
-20% |
INTC |
-23% |
SIGM |
-28% |
||
|
BRCM |
-9% |
KEYW |
-16% |
SMI |
-4% |
||
|
BWNG |
82% |
LNOP |
58% |
SMTL |
10% |
||
|
CPHD |
-5% |
MVIS |
-65% |
SYNA |
-2% |
||
|
ENER * |
-30% |
NETL |
3% |
TSM |
-4% |
||
|
EQIX |
39% |
NSM |
-10% |
TXN |
-2% |
||
|
FLEX |
11% |
PMCS * |
-54% |
XLNX |
-10% |
||
|
FNSR |
75% |
PWER |
9% |
ZRAN |
7% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER 2/10,
PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
Return is while in GTI only.