Friday, August 18, 2006

Commentary:  Yee-Haw! 
 
What a splendid week this was, with the GTI up 
11.1%, its best performance since May of 2003. 
 
In one swell swoop, the GTI has eliminated 
its loss for the year. A week ago it was down 
8.7%. Now it is up 1.5%. 
 
To paraphrase Rick in Casablanca,  this could 
be the start of a beautiful rally. 
 
Or maybe it's just a dead cat bounce, but if 
so, you could play basketball with that cat. 
It bounced five times this week. 
 
To me the most impressive bounce came on 
Friday, when the NASDAQ went from down 19 
after the first half hour of trading to up 6 by 
day's end. This looks like a market that wants 
to go up, even facing a weekend. 
 
And now, since a week like this really speaks 
for itself, I'll give you just the facts, Ma'am and 
get back to the PGA on television.

The Week Day by Day: 
   
 
Not a drop of red ink all week.

 
 

Friday, August 18, 2006 (cont’d) 
 
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 PMCS + 26.1%   MVIS - 8.3% 
 AMD + 21.0%   S - 1.3% 
 BRCM + 19.9%       - % 
 IKAN + 19.5%     - % 
 SIGM  + 19.3%      - % 

19 of the 30 GTI companies had double digit 
gains this week. Microvision, on the other 
hand, never got its invitation to the party. This 
is not the first time it has missed the festivities. 
It is down 60% for the year.

Returns for the Week: 
 
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 11.1% 
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 5.2% 
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  + 2.8% 
 
Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date 1.5% - 1.9% 4.3%
Avg for 9+ yrs 9.6%  5.5% 6.0%
Last 52 wks 9% 1% 7%
Since the high 
of 3/06/00		 - 78% - 57% - 15%
Since the low 
of 10/09/02		 278% 94% 68%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks 
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay 
Dividends		 Do Not Pay 
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 11.5%   4.7%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 3.6%   2.1%  

Room to Grow:

   GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the 
high to the low		 94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss 
recovered		 18%   27%   70%  
Return needed 
for a new high		 346%   133%   17%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.   
 
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI -21%   GLW 7%   QCOM -13%
ALTR 5%   IKAN -24%   S -22%
AMD -22%   INTC -25%   SIGM -28%
BRCM -5%   KEYW -12%   SMI -4%
BWNG 85%   LNOP 67%   SMTL 17%
CPHD -9%   MVIS -60%   SYNA -5%
ENER * -28%   NETL 11%   TSM 2%
EQIX 46%   NSM -8%   TXN 3%
FLEX 16%   PMCS * -52%   XLNX -8%
FNSR 75%   PWER 13%   ZRAN 6%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12). 
  Return is while in GTI only.