Friday, August 11, 2006

Commentary:  History Repeats Itself 
 
The GTI has finished in the red 11 out of the 
last 14 weeks and has lost 29% of its value. 
What started out as a good year (up 28% by 
May 5) is now in tatters. Only 7 of the 30 GTI 
stocks have a gain for the year, and two of 
those are up only 1%. 
 
The slide has felt like a replay of the year 2000, 
with occasional signs of life, but a dominant 
theme of down, down, down. 
 
As Yogi Berra famously said, it's déjà vu all 
over again. 
 
No one knows, will it end soon, or are we 
to go through another full blown crash?

George Santayana said that those who cannot 
remember the past are condemned to repeat it. 
I remember it all right, but that's not helping. 
 
Events seem to be repeating themselves on 
the world stage as well. The historian Victor 
Davis Hanson draws a chilling analogy 
between today and the 1930s in this piece.  
 
On the other hand, bless those who foiled 
the enemy's airline plot this week. They kept 
history from repeating itself, at least for now.

 
 

Friday, August 11, 2006 (cont’d) 
 
On a personal note, history repeats itself in 
good ways too. See my grandson Charlie: 
 
 

The Week Day by Day: 
   
 
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 FNSR + 8.3%   CPHD - 22.2% 
 MVIS + 5.4%   ADI - 17.3% 
 BRCM + 5.3%   IKAN   - 11.2% 
 KEYW + 4.9%   NSM - 5.7% 
 SMTL  + 3.8%   QCOM  - 5.7% 

Friday, August 11, 2006 (cont’d)

Returns for the Week: 
 
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.7% 
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 1.3% 
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 1.0% 
 
Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  - 8.7% - 6.7% 1.5%
Avg for 9+ yrs  8.4%  5.0% 5.7%
Last 52 wks - 3% - 5% 3%
Since the high 
of 3/06/00		 - 80% - 59% - 17%
Since the low 
of 10/09/02		 240% 85% 63%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks 
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay 
Dividends		 Do Not Pay 
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 18.0%   - 7.1%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 0.6%   - 2.5%  
 
 

 
 

Friday, August 11, 2006 (cont’d)

Room to Grow:

   GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the 
high to the low		 94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss 
recovered		 15%   24%   65%  
Return needed 
for a new high		 395%   145%   21%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.   
 
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI -25%   GLW -4%   QCOM -22%
ALTR -5%   IKAN -37%   S -21%
AMD -35%   INTC -29%   SIGM -40%
BRCM -20%   KEYW -12%   SMI -5%
BWNG 66%   LNOP 60%   SMTL 1%
CPHD -19%   MVIS -57%   SYNA -15%
ENER * -36%   NETL -6%   TSM -7%
EQIX 23%   NSM -14%   TXN -5%
FLEX 11%   PMCS * -62%   XLNX -20%
FNSR 50%   PWER 1%   ZRAN -7%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12). 
  Return is while in GTI only.