Friday, August 4, 2006

Commentary:  Fame Is Fleeting 
 
Fame, like the market's Friday gain, is fleeting. 
But Google seems forever. They even threaten 
Mr. Softee (MSFT). 
 
 Yesterday I had a mouse in the house, so I 
called in an exterminator. He was telling me 
about his experiences at Al Pacino's house 
and then said that I too was famous. When I 
said he was confusing me with someone 
else, he insisted and said I was an investor 
and had an award winning web site. 
 
He'd done his homework. He had googled me. 
 
If you do a google on Dick Sears, you'll find me 
listed first among some 3 million results, ahead 
of worthier people, such as the tennis player 
or my oldest son, both of whom do however 
make the top five. 
 
It's absurd, of course, the idea that I'm famous, 
but it was a useful reminder of how Google 
and others are transforming society through 
the internet. 
 
Surely the result of all this activity will be stock 
market gains for us. And renewed fame for GG. 
 
It's been an exciting two weeks for Wave 
Systems. GG is on their Board, so it can't be a 
Gilder stock, but it's widely held in Gilderland. 
 
On July 26 they did a reverse 3 for 1 split, in 
order to get the stock above $1 and thus 
regain their NASDAQ listing. It seemed to 
confuse the market. Look at the wide swings 
on the 26th. Is it possible that there were 
sellers who didn't know about the split? How 
else to explain a 72% difference between the 
high and low prices for the day? The only 
news was the split, and it came before the 
market opened.

 
 

Friday, August 4, 2006 (cont’d) 
 
Then WAVX produced a great earnings report 
on Friday. For the week they were up 34%. 
 
Here's their two-week chart: 
 
 
 
If they keep going, maybe WAVX will bring GG 
that new fame.

The Week Day by Day: 
   
 
 

 
 

Friday, August 4, 2006 (cont’d)

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 BWNG + 12.7%   IKAN - 20.7% 
 SMTL + 7.6%   MVIS - 20.4% 
 AMD + 7.2%   S   - 14.5%  
 SIGM + 5.8%   KEYW - 8.1%  
 SYNA  + 4.2%   PMCS  - 6.1%  

Returns for the Week: 
 
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.4% 
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.4% 
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  + 0.1% 
 
Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  - 7.1% - 5.5% 2.5%
Avg for 9+ yrs  8.6%  5.1% 5.9%
Last 52 wks - 2% - 4% 4%
Since the high 
of 3/06/00		 - 79% - 59% - 16%
Since the low 
of 10/09/02		 246% 87% 65%
 
 

 
 

Friday, August 4, 2006 (cont’d)

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks 
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay 
Dividends		 Do Not Pay 
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 14.5%   - 6.3%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 2.3%   - 2.2%  

Room to Grow:

   GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the 
high to the low		 94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss 
recovered		 16%   25%   67%  
Return needed 
for a new high		 387%   142%   19%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.   
 
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI -9%   GLW -7%   QCOM -18%
ALTR -6%   IKAN -29%   S -17%
AMD -33%   INTC -29%   SIGM -39%
BRCM -24%   KEYW -16%   SMI -6%
BWNG 70%   LNOP 57%   SMTL -2%
CPHD 4%   MVIS -59%   SYNA -11%
ENER * -32%   NETL -8%   TSM -8%
EQIX 22%   NSM -9%   TXN -6%
FLEX 11%   PMCS * -63%   XLNX -20%
FNSR 38%   PWER 5%   ZRAN -3%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12). 
  Return is while in GTI only.