The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
Commentary:
A Good Start
What do you call a weekly gain of 5.7% for the
GTI? I call it a good start.
After losing 31% in 11 weeks, it's time to get a
move on, to make something of the year. Have
we finally hit bottom? No one knows. As always,
only time will tell.
You've often heard me theorize that in the
summer, the fun-loving bulls party on the beach,
leaving those grim bears in charge of Wall Street.
The result is poor summertime performance
("sell in May and go away"), especially on Fridays
and Mondays. If you are confident of the future,
it's hard to resist a long summer weekend.
So imagine my surprise, when this week, our
best in six months, the big days were Monday
and Friday, with the latter continuing strong right
up to closing time. It's a good trade, my theory for
a gain. But
back
to the drawing board I go.
Last week I gave my usual rant against those
market pundits who have the gall to pretend that
they can explain the market's actions. (Oil was
up, oil was down, one explanation fits all.)
I also said that I wished I could get more of Peter
Allis's insights on golf.
In a wonderful conjunction, over the weekend
Peter Allis did some commentary for ABC. In it
he dismissed the pundits of the golf press as
"inky fingered peasants." I wish I'd said that.
The Week Day by
Day:
The Week's Top Gainers
and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| CPHD | + 18.7% | ZRAN | - 17.8% |
| PWER | + 14.4% | GLW | - 12.6% |
| LNOP | + 14.0% | ||
| NSM | + 12.8% | ||
| FLEX | + 10.9% | ||
The rewards and punishments of earnings
season can be considerable.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 5.7%
Nasdaq Composite Index
(NSD): + 3.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 3.1%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | - 5.8% | - 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 8.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% |
| Last 52 wks | - 3% | - 3% | 4% |
|
Since the high of 3/06/00 |
- 79% | - 59% | - 16% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
251% | 88% | 65% |
Comparison of Returns for GTI
Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | - 12.4% | - 6.0% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 3.3% | - 2.1% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
16% | 25% | 67% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
380% | 141% | 19% |
Graph of the GTI's long
recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
- 9% |
GLW |
- 3% |
QCOM |
- 17% |
||
|
ALTR |
- 6% |
IKAN |
- 10% |
S |
- 2% |
||
|
AMD |
- 38% |
INTC |
- 27% |
SIGM |
- 42% |
||
|
BRCM |
- 24% |
KEYW |
- 9% |
SMI |
- 0% |
||
|
BWNG |
51% |
LNOP |
59% |
SMTL |
- 9% |
||
|
CPHD |
4% |
MVIS |
- 48% |
SYNA |
- 15% |
||
|
ENER * |
- 29% |
NETL |
- 10% |
TSM |
- 7% |
||
|
EQIX |
24% |
NSM |
- 10% |
TXN |
- 8% |
||
|
FLEX |
8% |
PMCS * |
- 60% |
XLNX |
- 19% |
||
|
FNSR |
34% |
PWER |
2% |
ZRAN |
- 2% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER 2/10,
PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
Return is while in GTI only.