Est'd MCMXCIX
Dick Sears
Friday, July 21, 2006
Weekly update: Friday, 4:30-ish Eastern Time
Daily results: 5 minutes after close of market
Commentary:
Oh, Dear
With yet another bad week, the GTI has now
finished in the red nine of the last eleven weeks,
losing 31% of its value in the process. The GTI is
back where it was 14 months ago. It has been out
performed by the NASDAQ seven weeks in a row.
Where will it end? Who knows? The pundits
certainly don't.
You have to laugh when one of them uses the
same explanation for when the market goes up
as for when it goes down. This week a possible
slowdown in business activity sparked a rally on
Wednesday (the Fed will stop tightening soon)
and then caused down markets on Thursday
and Friday (profits will be lower).
They do that with rising oil prices too. One day
the market is weighed down by them, but the
next it is led upward by oil company stocks.
As I've often said, if we can't even explain
what's already happened, how can we ever
hope to predict the future?
But financial writers have space to fill and
deadlines to meet, and I can relate to that.
It's always a challenge for me to fill this space,
and especially so today, because I have the
British Open golf tournament to watch.
Does anyone know how to get the BBC on a
television set in this country? 7½ hours a day
of listening to ABC's Mike Tirico wears me out,
or at least it would, if I didn't have TiVo and fast
forward. I'd rather the Englishman, Peter Allis.
And now it's back to the Open for me. As Peter
Allis might say, ta-ta and cheerio.
The Week
Day by Day:
One good day a week is not enough to
live on,
but we've made a steady diet of it for six weeks.
And the week before that we fasted, with no
up days at all. No wonder we've lost so much
weight. No wonder there's no joy in Gilderville.
The Week's Top
Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| MVIS | + 4.3% | PMCS | - 27.2% |
| SYNA | + 4.0% | BRCM | - 17.8% |
| FLEX | + 1.4% | IKAN | - 15.6% |
| AMD | - 15.5% | ||
| FNSR | - 15.0% | ||
With a 26%
loss today, PMCS is now down 61%
in the 15 weeks it has been part of the GTI.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): -
6.0%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 0.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 0.3%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | - 10.8% | - 8.4% | - 0.6% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 8.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% |
| Last 52 wks | - 10% | - 7% | 1% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 80% | - 60% | - 19% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
232% | 81% | 60% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | - 18.1% | - 10.9% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 0.6% | - 4.1% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
15% | 23% | 62% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
407% | 150% | 23% |
Graph of the
GTI's long recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
- 15% |
GLW |
11% |
QCOM |
- 20% |
||
|
ALTR |
- 15% |
IKAN |
- 18% |
S |
- 9% |
||
|
AMD |
- 40% |
INTC |
- 31% |
SIGM |
- 46% |
||
|
BRCM |
- 26% |
KEYW |
- 10%% |
SMI |
- 5% |
||
|
BWNG |
41% |
LNOP |
39% |
SMTL |
- 16% |
||
|
CPHD |
- 12% |
MVIS |
- 49%% |
SYNA |
- 21% |
||
|
ENER * |
- 31%% |
NETL |
- 12% |
TSM |
- 14% |
||
|
EQIX |
15% |
NSM |
- 20%% |
TXN |
- 16%% |
||
|
FLEX |
- 3% |
PMCS * |
- 61% |
XLNX |
- 20% |
||
|
FNSR |
25% |
PWER |
- 11% |
ZRAN |
19% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER
2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
Return is while in GTI only.
The Year to Date:
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There were 30 companies in the GTI this
week. They are listed, with year-to-datee
returns, at the bottom of the column to
the left.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
3 up, 27 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year::
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 | 2.1% |
| 2006 to date | 3.1% |
As an indication of trend, this
table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
|
Yearr |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 | 26 of 52 | 50% |
| 2006 to date | 13 of 29 | 45% |