Friday, July 14, 2006

Commentary:  No Bottom 
 
Even on Bastille Day, we're locked into falling 
stock prices. 
 
Since May 5th, the GTI has lost 26%. That's bad 
enough, but it's especially galling because the 
NASDAQ has lost "only" 13%. 
 
To be sure, there's a lot to worry about these 
days, like nukes in the wrong hands, wars in 
the Middle East, inflation, maybe a slowdown. 
 
Myself I'm with Don Hays, incurably bullish. 
 
But the fact remains, two months ago the GTI 
was up 28% for the year, and now it's in the red. 
Black ink is selling for peanuts. 
 
We're like a sailing ship that wants to anchor, but 
the water's too deep. The cable won't reach the 
sea floor. In nautical parlance, there's no bottom. 
 
We're going to have to keep treading water until 
there is one. 
 
So far this market has pinched a lot of bottoms, 
without ever getting the desired response, 
namely, let's go up to my place (or anywhere 
else that's up). 
 
Seriously, though, the market does seem more 
inclined these days to bounce off a low, and 
some of our stocks are showing signs of life. 
To me both are omens of a turnaround. 
 
If you want something more scientific, I'll need 
time to collect chicken entrails.

 
 

Friday, July 14, 2006  (cont’d)

The Week Day by Day: 
  
 
Another dreadful week. I'm getting an Excedrin 
headache. 
 
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 ADI + 1.5%    BWNG - 14.5% 
 BRCM + 1.4%    LNOP - 12.6% 
 NSM + 0.3%    MVIS - 11.8% 
        NETL - 11.1% 
        KEYW - 11.0% 

"Honorable" mention to ZRAN and PMCS, who 
had double digit losses but didn't make the list. 
 
Returns for the Week: 
 
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 5.3% 
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 4.4% 
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 2.3% 
 
 

 
 

Friday, July 14, 2006  (cont’d)

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  - 5.2% - 7.6% - 1.0%
Avg for 9+ yrs  8.9%  4.9% 5.5%
Last 52 wks - 2% - 6% 1%
Since the high 
of 3/06/00		 - 79% - 60% - 19%
Since the low 
of 10/09/02		 253% 83% 59%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks 
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay 
Dividends		 Do Not Pay 
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 14.0%   - 4.4%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 2.6%   - 1.5%  
 
 

 
 

Friday, July 14, 2006  (cont’d)

Room to Grow:

   GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the 
high to the low		 94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss 
recovered		 16%   23%   61%  
Return needed 
for a new high		 377%   148%   24%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.    
 
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI - 12%    GLW 12%    QCOM - 15%
ALTR - 12%    IKAN - 3%    S - 9%
AMD - 29%    INTC - 28%    SIGM - 43%
BRCM - 11%    KEYW - 6%    SMI - 3%
BWNG 44%    LNOP 55%    SMTL - 14%
CPHD - 1%    MVIS - 51%    SYNA - 24%
ENER * - 26%    NETL - 5%    TSM - 11%
EQIX 15%    NSM - 11%    TXN - 10%
FLEX - 4%    PMCS * - 47%    XLNX - 16%
FNSR 48%    PWER - 9%    ZRAN 26%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12). 
  Return is while in GTI only.