Friday, October 7, 2005 Commentary: Murphy's Law
It was a wretched week. The GTI fell 4.0%, its worst performance in six months. Only one of the 28 GTI stocks finished with a gain, and three of them (EQIX, NETL, and TXN) had losses on the order of 10%. Adding insult to injury, the GTI's eight-week winning streak against the NASDAQ came to an end, and the GTI is back in the red for the year.
Well, sure, it was a bad week, but why Murphy's Law? Why "if anything can go wrong it will"? Oh, did I forget to mention the Red Sox?
The week was especially disappointing because I assumed our inevitable vigorous fourth-quarter rally was imminent. It caused me to take another look at the table of historic fourth-quarter returns I presented last week. Maybe October's not so hot, I was thinking. Here's what I found:
Oct. Nov. Dec. 4th Qrtr 2004 + 5% + 10% + 5% + 21% 2003 + 12% + 5% + 2% + 20% 2002 + 12% + 45% - 21% + 28% 2001 + 30% + 20% - 6% + 47% 2000 - 18% - 34% - 2% - 47% 1999 + 11% + 21% + 29% + 74%
October looks good enough. I guess I'll just have to be patient. Even Rome NY wasn't built in a day.
The immediate cause of the bad week, if you believe the pundits (never a good idea), was inflation concerns voiced by Fed spokesmen. Is it possible they know something? No, that can't be it. But maybe their remarks caused investors to sell, on the grounds that other investors might.
I always wonder about that. If some analyst says that QCOM, say, is a bad stock to own, does its price fall because investors agree with him? Or is it just that they figure others will sell, so they'd better too. I'd guess the latter.
I came across a couple of things this week that amused me. When a newspaper reported that "Bill Clinton Charms Indian Actress," a poster responded "love means never having to stain your sari." It's all here (scroll down for photos).
The other was a system I found for protecting plants from deer. I don't have any idea if it works or not. I just loved the name, Not Tonight Deer.

The Market This Week:

Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): - 4.0%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD): - 2.9%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 1.3%