06/30/06
Commentary:
Fed UP !
Maybe this Bernanke guy is going to be all right.
As pleasant as Thursday was, the GTI is still
down 18% since May 5. We need a lot more big
days to catch up, but maybe we've turned the
corner. The year is now half over. It's time for
a second half rally. Go Team!
One encouraging note, perhaps, is that we finally
broke the Monday jinx. Well, sort of. The week
still started with a disaster, but it fell on Tuesday,
one day late.
Good riddance to an
ugly quarter. All that can be
said for it is that 2002 was a whole lot worse.
The Week Day by Day:
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| IKAN | + 12.5% | SIGM | - 15.0% |
| GLW | + 12.2% | LNOP | - 7.5% |
| CPHD | + 7.9% | BRCM | - 3.7% |
| SMI | + 7.0% | AMD | - 2.9% |
| EQIX | + 6.3% | MVIS | - 2.0% |
As of Tuesday, Sigma
Designs (SIGM) was down
38% for the month, its very own
Sigmoidoscopy.
But it's up 10% since it hit *bottom*. Best wishes
for a continued recovery.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 2.0%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 2.4%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 2.1%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | 5.2% | - 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 10.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| Last 52 wks | 15% | 6% | 6% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 77% | - 57% | - 17% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
292% | 95% | 64% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | - 9.0% | 9.2% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 5.0% | 3.9% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
18% | 27% | 66% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
330% | 132% | 20% |
Graph of the
GTI's long recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
- 10% |
GLW |
23% |
QCOM |
- 7% |
||
|
ALTR |
- 5% |
IKAN |
3% |
S |
- 5% |
||
|
AMD |
- 20% |
INTC |
- 23% |
SIGM |
- 39% |
||
|
BRCM |
- 4% |
KEYW |
8% |
SMI |
3% |
||
|
BWNG |
71% |
LNOP |
80% |
SMTL |
- 5% |
||
|
CPHD |
11% |
MVIS |
- 46% |
SYNA |
- 13% |
||
|
ENER * |
- 21% |
NETL |
18% |
TSM |
- 4% |
||
|
EQIX |
35% |
NSM |
- 8% |
TXN |
- 5% |
||
|
FLEX |
2% |
PMCS * |
- 29% |
XLNX |
- 10% |
||
|
FNSR |
57% |
PWER |
10% |
ZRAN |
50% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER
2/10, PMCS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
Return is while in GTI only.