Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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6/24/05
Dick Sears Weekly Update:  It Isn't Fair

 
We were cruising along last week, quietly
racking up small profits. As I'd observed the
week before, we were enjoying steady gains
in a climate of extremely low volatility.

In other words, we were behaving ourselves.
We were avoiding the kind of ostentatious
success that might attract the unwelcome
attention of Chairman Greenspan. We were
in a stealth rally, flying under the Fed's radar.

So far, so good. But then came Thursday,
and we got blindsided. And Friday brought
more of the same. What had looked like a
good week for the GTI turned out to be a
bad one, with 20 stocks down and only 8
stocks up. A notable exception to the
trouncing was Essex (KEYW),  which was
up 13.7% for the week.

Blame it on high oil prices, or China, or
Congress, who knows?

What I do know is that we suffered two-day
losses at a level that if they'd been gains,
the Chairman might have started muttering
about irrational exuberance.

Bottom line, the bears can go on a rampage,
and nothing happens. But if the bulls charge,
Greenspan turns into El Cordobés.

It's like the tax code: heads they win, tails
we lose.

Returns for Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.6%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 1.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 2.1%

Historical Returns:

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 3.9% - 5.6% - 1.7%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.6%  5.6% 5.8%
Last 52 wks 1%  1% 5%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 80% - 59% - 22%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
241% 84% 53%


Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28
companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

8 up, 20 down, 0 unchanged.