Friday, June 23, 2006

Commentary:  What's Next? 
 
What does the future have in store for us? Most likely the usual summer doldrums, while we wait for the bulls to return from the beach. 
 
On the other hand, a new earnings season is only weeks away. That always brings fresh hope. We don't seem to have had the usual spate of dire warnings, so there's reason to hope. 
 
I get the feeling the market may be about to make a strong move, either up or down. The daily swings seem to be getting bigger, as if the market has something in mind, and no one wants to miss the boat. 
 
But before we can make any real progress, we've got to stop shooting ourselves in the foot with the starting gun. This First-Day-of-the-Week Trading Jinx shows no signs of quitting. This week it took the form of a 2.1% loss. Here's the record for the last six weeks: 

Week 
Ended		 Monday 
Return
May 19   - 1.9% 
May 26   - 2.6%
June 2   - 2.6% *
June 9   - 3.5%
June 16   - 3.8%
June 23   - 2.1%

* Memorial Day Tuesday. 
 
Over these six weeks, the GTI has lost 10.2%. Without the opening day losses, it would have gained 7.0%. If only the bulls would show up for work on Mondays.

 
 

Friday, June 23, 2006 (cont’d) 
 
The Week Day by Day: 
   
 
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 LNOP + 9.8%    QCOM - 10.1% 
 SYNA + 6.1%    S - 4.7% 
 EQIX + 3.9%    XLNX - 4.6% 
 BWNG + 2.3%    NSM - 4.5% 
 ENER + 1.9%    TSM - 4.2% 

The Eurovultures are hovering over the mighty Q. It needs blowout earnings this quarter. 
 
 Returns for the Week: 
 
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.3% 
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.4% 
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.5%

 
 

Friday, June 23, 2006 (cont’d) 
 
 Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  3.1% - 3.8% - 0.3%
Avg for 9+ yrs  9.9%  5.4% 5.6%
Last 52 wks 13% 3% 4%
Since the high 
of 3/06/00		 - 77% - 58% - 19%
Since the low 
of 10/09/02		 284% 90% 60%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks 
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay 
Dividends		 Do Not Pay 
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 11.2%   7.2%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 4.0%   3.2%  
 
 

 
 

Friday, June 23, 2006 (cont’d) 
 
Room to Grow:

   GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the 
high to the low		 94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss 
recovered		 18%   26%   62%  
Return needed 
for a new high		 339%   138%   23%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.   
 
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI - 11%   GLW 10%   QCOM - 8%
ALTR - 7%   IKAN - 8%   S - 7%
AMD - 18%   INTC - 27%   SIGM - 28%
BRCM 0%   KEYW 5%   SMI - 3%
BWNG 73%   LNOP 94%   SMTL - 10%
CPHD 3%   MVIS - 45%   SYNA - 12%
ENER * - 21%   NETL 16%   TSM - 9%
EQIX 27%   NSM - 10%   TXN - 8%
FLEX - 3%   PCMS * - 31%   XLNX - 9%
FNSR 58%   PWER 4%   ZRAN 45%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PCMS 4/7, SMTL 5/12). 
  Return is while in GTI only.