Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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6/6/05

Dick Sears Weekly Update: All Good Things...

The GTI's five-week winning streak finally
came to an end, but not much damage
was done. After all those good weeks,
a 0.3% loss is quite mild.

All the same, it's ironic that the only thing
that stood between us and another
winning week was disappointing news
from our own Intel (INTC).

The GTI's winning streak against the
NASDAQ (if you care about such things)
is still alive. The GTI has now come out
on top six weeks in a row, the first time
it has done that in over two years.

My curse on the Yankees also continues.
They've lost 9 of 12 since I hexed them.
 

Returns for Week Ended June 10:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 0.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.4%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 0.2%

Historical Returns:

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 3.6% - 5.2% - 1.1%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.7%  5.7% 5.9%
Last 52 wks 1%  3% 5%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 80% - 59% - 22%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
242% 85% 54%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28
companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

13 up, 15 down, 0 unchanged.

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows
a
verage weekly change in the GTI each year:
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 to Date 2.3%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:

Year Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 to Date 11 of 23 48%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000, high
to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here for the
details of its long recovery attempt.