June 9, 2006
Commentary:
V for Victory?
It was a terrible week, the worst in over two
years, but was that a bottom the market was
fondling on Thursday? Surely, it had a most
attractive shape:
On the
other hand, the market's malaise has
been going on for five weeks. Why stop now?
Surely, the market's lack of follow-through on
Friday wasn't a good sign.
At times the collapse this Spring has been so
breathtaking that it has felt like the crash of 2000
all over again: great optimism, crushed by
staggering losses, with occasional rallies
just to rub it in.
But that disaster was preceded by a mammoth
run up, something the conventional wisdom now
tells us was a bubble.
Surely,
that can't be what's
happening now. We haven't had our run up yet.
Perhaps what we have is something like the tech
correction of the Autumn of '98, a huge setback,
but not a crash.
If that's the case, that we face a replay of 1998,
the bad news is we're not finished going down.
This NASDAQ's loss hasn't exceeded 12% yet.
In 1998 the NASDAQ fell 30% from its high.
But the good news is that after that 1998 drop,
the NASDAQ gained 256% in the next year and
a half. I wouldn't mind reliving that!
This time, though, let's remember to sell before
the crash.
The Week Day by Day:
Monday the 5th was an evil day. If it been
the 6th,
we'd have known it was the Devil that did it.
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| ZRAN | + 0.3% | FNSR | - 32.7% |
| BRCM | - 14.5% | ||
| IKAN | - 13.4% | ||
| NETL | - 13.0% | ||
| PMCS | - 11.3% | ||
A week ago Finisar was the GTI's number one
stock, up 136% for the year. Now it's in fourth
place, up 59%. That's still a good showing, but
it can't afford any more weeks like this one.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): -
8.4%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 3.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 2.8%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | 5.6% | - 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 10.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Last 52 wks | 15% | 3% | 5% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 77% | - 58% | - 18% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
293% | 92% | 61% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | - 7.8% | 9.9% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 5.6% | 4.3% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
19% | 26% | 63% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
328% | 136% | 22% |
Graph of the
GTI's long recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
- 9% |
GLW |
13% |
QCOM |
1% |
||
|
ALTR |
- 4% |
IKAN |
- 6% |
S |
1% |
||
|
AMD |
- 13% |
INTC |
- 31% |
SIGM |
- 25% |
||
|
BRCM |
- 7% |
KEYW |
4% |
SMI |
- 1% |
||
|
BWNG |
84% |
LNOP |
83% |
SMTL |
- 3% |
||
|
CPHD |
7% |
MVIS |
- 46% |
SYNA |
- 10% |
||
|
ENER * |
- 13% |
NETL |
11% |
TSM |
- 11% |
||
|
EQIX |
38% |
NSM |
- 6% |
TXN |
- 7% |
||
|
FLEX |
1% |
PCMS * |
- 33% |
XLNX |
- 0% |
||
|
FNSR |
59% |
PWER |
1% |
ZRAN |
60% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER
2/10, PCMS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
Return is while in GTI only.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There were 30 companies in the GTI this
week. They are listed, with year-to-date
returns, at the bottom of the column to
the left.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
1 up, 29 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 | 2.1% |
| 2006 to date | 3.0% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 | 26 of 52 | 50% |
| 2006 to date | 12 of 23 | 52% |