Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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6/3/05

Dick Sears Weekly Update: Let's Hear It for GTI!

 

The major indexes were down this week,
but not the GTI.

It gained 3.2%, with 22 stocks up and
only 6 stocks down. It has now finished
in the black five weeks in row, beating
the NASDAQ each time. The last time
the GTI bested the NASDAQ five weeks
in a row was over two years ago.

During this stretch it has outperformed
the NASDAQ 16.1% to 7.8%.

That kind of superiority is reminiscent
of 1999, when the GTI was up 284%,
compared to 86% for the NASDAQ,
or 2003, when the GTI led 130% to 50%.

Perhaps we're headed for another such
balmy period. Wouldn't that be nice?

I don't often have reason to pat myself
on the back, but, hey, when I'm great,
I'm great. A week ago I said the Yankees'
hot streak, in which they'd won 15 of 17,
was at an end. Since then they've lost
5 times in 6 games. I wish I could predict
the market like that.

Another personal note: recently Debbie
and I were in a talent show at our local
church. I sang The Maharajah of Magador,
and Debbie danced to it.  If you wonder
where her costume came from, she found
it on eBay for $3. My wife is a genius, as
well as beautiful.
 

Returns for Week Ended June 3:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 3.2%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.2%

Historical Returns:

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 3.3% - 4.8% - 1.3%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.7%  5.8% 5.9%
Last 52 wks 2%  5% 7%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 80% - 59% - 22%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
243% 86% 54%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.