05/26/2006

Commentary:  Thirteen Days in May

The storm has abated for the moment, but while
it was going on it felt as if we were trapped in a
disaster movie. Think The Poseidon. That's how
upside down the market was. 

Starting May 8th, the GTI finished in the red every
single day for thirteen days. In the process, it lost
13.3% of its value, compared to losses of only
7.4% for the NASDAQ and 5.1% for the S&P.

It was particularly frustrating toward the end. The
market would start to make a good gain, but then
regurgitate it before the close. Like someone with
the stomach flu, it couldn't keep anything down.

Now it's time to right the ship. Perhaps those
who lost the most will make the best recoveries.
In any event, here's a company by company list
of the storm damage:

MVIS

- 37%

ALTR

- 17%

LNOP

- 13%

PWER

- 23%

TSM

- 16%

XLNX

- 11%

NETL

- 23%

PMCS

- 16%

TXN

- 11%

SIGM

- 20%

FNSR

- 15%

SMI

- 10%

BWNG

- 20%

IKAN

- 14%

AMD

- 10%

ENER

- 20%

QCOM

- 14%

FLEX

- 9%

ZRAN

- 20%

KEYW

- 14%

INTC

- 8%

BRCM

- 19%

S

- 13%

SYNA

- 8%

GLW

- 19%

EQIX

- 13%

ADI

- 7%

NSM

- 18%

SMTL

- 13%

CPHD

- 1%

It's been a difficult three weeks, but nothing like
the Perfect Storm of 2000-2002. To reach those
damage levels, we would have to repeat the
"Thirteen Days in May"
twenty times (20) in a row.
We would have to go down, down, down, every
day for a full year, with not a single day up.

Think Katrina meets Groundhog Day.

The Week Day by Day:
 


Everyone made money this week but the GTI.
It's common
at times like these for the NASDAQ
to beat the GTI. No problem! Our day will come
on the return trip. And what better time to start
than next week, when the market is rested from
its three-day weekend.


The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 KEYW + 7.5%   MVIS - 12.1% 
 IKAN + 7.0%   AMD - 9.5% 
 ZRAN + 6.3%   NSM - 7.3% 
 NETL + 5.8%   BRCM - 7.1% 
 SIGM + 3.3%   SMI - 5.7% 

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.0%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 1.0%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  13.7%  0.2% 2.6%
Avg for 9+ yrs  11.2%  5.9% 6.0%
Last 52 wks 28% 6% 7%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 75% - 56% - 16%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
323% 98% 65%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date - 4.4%   20.4%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 7.3%   8.4%  

Room to Grow:

  GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the
high to the low
94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss
recovered
20%   28%   67%  
Return needed
for a new high
298%   128%   19%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.  

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

- 5%

GLW

26%

QCOM

7%

ALTR

4%

IKAN

8%

S

- 8%

AMD

3%

INTC

- 26%

SIGM

- 15%

BRCM

10%

KEYW

12%

SMI

3%

BWNG

96%

LNOP

78%

SMTL

- 0%

CPHD

4%

MVIS

- 34%

SYNA

- 0%

ENER *

- 11%

NETL

23%

TSM

- 6%

EQIX

44%

NSM

- 1%

TXN

- 1%

FLEX

9%

PCMS *

- 25%

XLNX

5%

FNSR

123%

PWER

2%

ZRAN

52%

* Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PCMS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
  Return is while in GTI only.

 

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 
Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There were 30 companies in the GTI this
week. They are listed, with year-to-date
returns, at the bottom of the column to
the left.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
12 up, 15 down, 3 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:

 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 2.8%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:

 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 11 of 21 52%