05/26/2006
Commentary:
Thirteen Days in May
The storm has abated for the moment, but while
it was going on it felt as if we were trapped in a
disaster movie. Think The Poseidon. That's how
upside down the market was.
Starting May 8th, the GTI finished in the red every
single day for thirteen days. In the process, it lost
13.3% of its value, compared to losses of only
7.4% for the NASDAQ and 5.1% for the S&P.
It was particularly frustrating toward the end. The
market would start to make a good gain, but then
regurgitate it before the close. Like someone with
the stomach flu, it couldn't keep anything down.
Now it's time to right the ship. Perhaps those
who lost the most will make the best recoveries.
In any event, here's a company by company list
of the storm damage:
|
MVIS |
- 37% |
ALTR |
- 17% |
LNOP |
- 13% |
||
|
PWER |
- 23% |
TSM |
- 16% |
XLNX |
- 11% |
||
|
NETL |
- 23% |
PMCS |
- 16% |
TXN |
- 11% |
||
|
SIGM |
- 20% |
FNSR |
- 15% |
SMI |
- 10% |
||
|
BWNG |
- 20% |
IKAN |
- 14% |
AMD |
- 10% |
||
|
ENER |
- 20% |
QCOM |
- 14% |
FLEX |
- 9% |
||
|
ZRAN |
- 20% |
KEYW |
- 14% |
INTC |
- 8% |
||
|
BRCM |
- 19% |
S |
- 13% |
SYNA |
- 8% |
||
|
GLW |
- 19% |
EQIX |
- 13% |
ADI |
- 7% |
||
|
NSM |
- 18% |
SMTL |
- 13% |
CPHD |
- 1% |
It's been
a difficult three weeks, but nothing like
the Perfect Storm of 2000-2002. To reach those
damage levels, we would have to repeat the
"Thirteen Days in May"
twenty times (20)
in a row.
We would have to go down, down, down, every
day for a full year, with not a single day up.
Think Katrina
meets Groundhog Day.
The Week Day by Day:
Everyone made money this week but the GTI.
It's common at times
like these for the NASDAQ
to beat the GTI. No problem! Our day will come
on the return trip. And what better time to start
than next week, when the market is rested from
its three-day weekend.
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| KEYW | + 7.5% | MVIS | - 12.1% |
| IKAN | + 7.0% | AMD | - 9.5% |
| ZRAN | + 6.3% | NSM | - 7.3% |
| NETL | + 5.8% | BRCM | - 7.1% |
| SIGM | + 3.3% | SMI | - 5.7% |
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): -
1.0%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 0.8%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 1.0%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | 13.7% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 11.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Last 52 wks | 28% | 6% | 7% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 75% | - 56% | - 16% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
323% | 98% | 65% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | - 4.4% | 20.4% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 7.3% | 8.4% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
20% | 28% | 67% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
298% | 128% | 19% |
Graph of the
GTI's long recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
- 5% |
GLW |
26% |
QCOM |
7% |
||
|
ALTR |
4% |
IKAN |
8% |
S |
- 8% |
||
|
AMD |
3% |
INTC |
- 26% |
SIGM |
- 15% |
||
|
BRCM |
10% |
KEYW |
12% |
SMI |
3% |
||
|
BWNG |
96% |
LNOP |
78% |
SMTL |
- 0% |
||
|
CPHD |
4% |
MVIS |
- 34% |
SYNA |
- 0% |
||
|
ENER * |
- 11% |
NETL |
23% |
TSM |
- 6% |
||
|
EQIX |
44% |
NSM |
- 1% |
TXN |
- 1% |
||
|
FLEX |
9% |
PCMS * |
- 25% |
XLNX |
5% |
||
|
FNSR |
123% |
PWER |
2% |
ZRAN |
52% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER
2/10, PCMS 4/7, SMTL 5/12).
Return is while in GTI only.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There were 30 companies in the GTI this
week. They are listed, with year-to-date
returns, at the bottom of the column to
the left.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
12 up, 15 down, 3 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 | 2.1% |
| 2006 to date | 2.8% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 | 26 of 52 | 50% |
| 2006 to date | 11 of 21 | 52% |