Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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May 13, 2005

Dick Sears:Weekly Update: One for the Seesaw

Monday was good, but Tuesday was bad.
Wednesday was good, then Thursday was
bad. It all came down to Friday.

The day had a rousing start, thanks to an
encouraging report from Dell and a surge
in semiconductor stocks.

But then we watched the market go down
and down, until a late rally saved both day
and week.

The net result of our seesaw ride was
a small weekly gain for the GTI. It could
have been better -- there were 17 stocks
up and only 11 down -- but two big losers
hurt, EQIX and TERN, both down 10%.

With the earnings season almost over,
we may have to hunker down now for
a touch of early summer doldrums.

Returns for Week Ended May 13:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 0.7%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.5%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
- 1.5%

Historical Returns:

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 12.8% - 9.1% - 4.8%
Avg for 8+ yrs  8.5%  5.2% 5.4%
Last 52 wks - 4%  4% 5%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 82% - 61% - 24%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
209% 77% 49%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 29
companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

17 up, 11 down, 1 unchanged.