05/12/06
Commentary:
Ouch!
We were cruising along, and then -- wham! -- our
worst week in almost two years. Is this the start
of something terrible? Or a pause on the way up?
No one knows, of course. We don't even know
what happened, or who it was that let the bears
out. Was it Bernanke? Does he need another
session with Maria to smooth his rough edges?
We'll just have to wait to see what happens. At
which point, of course, there will be no shortage
of people telling us they knew it all along. But for
now, the future is a mystery waiting to unfold.
Personally, when the market takes a beating like
this, I become terribly pessimistic. Similarly, when
the market is going up, I feel it will never end.
Of course I have it backwards. Buy when there's
blood in the streets, we all know that. But after
what happened in 2000 to 2002, that's easier said
than done.
For now, I can think of a plague of reasons for
caution. But I can also think of a bloom of
reasons for optimism. We live in exciting times.
George Gilder was featured this week in The Wall
Street Journal Online. If you missed it, you can
find it under "Press
Clippings" on the left.
The Week Day by Day:
It was a wretch of a
week. As usually happens
at such times, the GTI lagged the NASDAQ, but
we'll make it back on the way up -- whenever
that might be.
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
| Gainers | Losers | ||
| CPHD | + 7.1% | MVIS | - 24.1% |
| ENER | + 0.6% | NETL | - 19.3% |
| ADI | + 0.6% | KEYW | - 17.3% |
| IKAN | + 0.1% | FNSR | - 13.7% |
| BRCM | - 11.7% | ||
Not much good news here.
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): -
7.0%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 4.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 2.6%
Historical Returns:
| Period | GTI | NSD | S&P |
| 1997 (est'd) | 21% | 22% | 31% |
| 1998 (est'd) | 48% | 40% | 27% |
| 1999 | 284% | 86% | 20% |
| 2000 | - 44% | - 39% | - 10% |
| 2001 | - 43% | - 21% | - 13% |
| 2002 | - 56% | - 32% | - 23% |
| 2003 | 130% | 50% | 26% |
| 2004 | 3% | 9% | 9% |
| 2005 | 5% | 1% | 3% |
| 2006 to date | 19.4% | 1.7% | 3.4% |
| Avg for 9+ yrs | 11.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Last 52 wks | 44% | 14% | 12% |
|
Since the
high of 3/06/00 |
- 74% | - 56% | - 15% |
|
Since the low of 10/09/02 |
344% | 101% | 66% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year | Do Pay Dividends |
Do Not
Pay Dividends |
| 2004 | 11.6% | - 3.3% |
| 2005 | 11.1% | 4.2% |
| 2006 to date | 2.7% | 25.8% |
| Avg for 2+ yrs | 10.8% | 10.6% |
Room to Grow:
| GTI | NSD | S&P | |
|
Loss from the high to the low |
94% | 78% | 49% |
|
% of the loss recovered |
22% | 29% | 69% |
|
Return needed for a new high |
279% | 125% | 18% |
Graph of the
GTI's long recovery attempt.
Individual Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
1% |
GLW |
27% |
QCOM |
14% |
||
|
ALTR |
6% |
IKAN |
14% |
S |
5% |
||
|
AMD |
3% |
INTC |
- 23% |
SIGM |
- 12% |
||
|
BRCM |
16% |
KEYW |
1% |
SMI |
9% |
||
|
BWNG |
109% |
LNOP |
82% |
SYNA |
- 1% |
||
|
CPHD |
10% |
MVIS |
- 19% |
TSM |
3% |
||
|
ENER * |
10% |
NETL |
17% |
TXN |
4% |
||
|
EQIX |
55% |
NSM |
10% |
XLNX |
9% |
||
|
FLEX |
13% |
PCMS * |
- 20% |
ZRAN |
62% |
||
|
FNSR |
118% |
PWER |
17% |
*
Joined list this year (ENER
2/10, PCMS 4/7).
Return is while in GTI only.
From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:
Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:
Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There were 29 companies in the GTI this
week. They are listed, with year-to-date
returns, at the bottom of the left column.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
4 up, 25 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
| Year | Ave Wkly Change |
| 1999 | 4.2% |
| 2000 | 7.7% |
| 2001 | 8.5% |
| 2002 | 6.8% |
| 2003 | 4.3% |
| 2004 | 3.4% |
| 2005 | 2.1% |
| 2006 to date | 2.8% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number of Up Weeks |
As a % |
| 1999 | 39 of 52 | 75% |
| 2000 | 24 of 52 | 46% |
| 2001 | 22 of 52 | 42% |
| 2002 | 19 of 52 | 37% |
| 2003 | 31 of 53 | 58% |
| 2004 | 28 of 52 | 54% |
| 2005 | 26 of 52 | 50% |
| 2006 to date | 11 of 19 | 58% |