Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

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4/30/04
Weekly Commentary by Dick Sears
A Trip to Hades

It was an infernal week, a trip to Hades, with the most fiendish punishment reserved for Gilder stocks.

The GTI had its worst week in almost two years. It has fallen back into the red for 2004. It under performed the NASDAQ for a fourth week in a row. During this time, it is down 16.1%, compared to 6.7% for the NASDAQ.

Owning GTI stocks is, of course, a high stakes game, as most of us have long since learned the hard way. This week's free fall into the abyss was not a new experience for us.

But let's not forget that Gilder stocks are angels when times are good. Even with the recent collapse, the GTI is up 223% since its low of October 9, 2002, compared to 72% for the NASDAQ.

The question now is, where do we go from here? When the market gave in to its nervousness this week, was that an aberration? Or are we on the edge of a precipice?

I fancy that I know as much about where the market is headed as anyone else does, which is nothing, but for what it's worth, I'm betting on the former.

The Internet-driven new world economy is still on track and has a long way to go. Terrorism will provide occasional setbacks, but right will prevail in the end.

As I said on an earlier occasion, though, don't attach any more significance to my predictions than if I were standing on a street corner holding a sign that said The End Is Near.

Returns for Week Ended April 30
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 2.1%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 2.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.5%