Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

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04/25/05

Dick Sears Weekly Update:  Glad To Be of Service

I was feeling bad that I'd predicted a month
ago that the market had hit bottom, since it
then continued to fall.

So I took action.  I sold.  We all know from
experience that the surest way to make
the market go up is to sell.

It seems to have worked, except for a
couple of bumps in the road.

If it does turn out that I sold at the low,
don't feel sorry for me.  I was just being
cautious.  I'm an old man.  We old men
are supposed to be cautious.

Five years ago my portfolio was 100% in
Gilder stocks.  The crash (and Debbie, my
brilliant and loving wife) convinced me that
keeping the same roof over our heads was
more important than flying in private jets.
Who knew?

Now one-half of our portfolio is made up
of fixed-income securities (treasuries,
in fact).  And the other half has a lot of
conservative stuff, like S&P index funds.

Over time, the GTI has become more of a
hobby than an investment program.

As I said above, though, I'm glad to be of
service, especially to younger and braver
investors.  Maintaining this site is one way
I do that, and it's fun for me.  It's one of the
things that keeps me young.

Many of my pleasures now are vicarious.
Like grandchildren, for instance.

Be assured, though, that Gilder stocks
are still an important part of my portfolio.
Along with the rest of you (except Waldo),
it means a lot to me that they succeed.

But reality reared its ugly head, and this
gray head was happy to heed the call. 

Returns for Week Ended April 22:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 2.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 1.3%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 0.8%

Historical Returns:

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 15.8% - 11.2% - 4.9%
Avg for 8+ yrs  8.1%  5.0% 5.5%
Last 52 wks - 19%  - 6% 1%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 82% - 62% - 25%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
198% 73% 48%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 29
companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

19 up, 10 down, 0 unchanged.