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Daily Speculations The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter; a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place. |
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4/23/04
Weekly
Commentary by Dick Sears
The Chairman Speaks
After what seemed an eternity, the market finally rallied in response to this quarter's many good earnings reports. It wasn't that the reports before this week weren't good ones, just that the market shrugged them off. This time it seems the reports were just too good to ignore.
Maybe with the ice now broken, the market can resume its upward march.
On the other hand, maybe much of the gain was merely a relief rally over the fact that Alan Greenspan had finally stopped addressing Congress.
The Chairman speaks in words of many syllables. The market replies in words of one syllable, of which only "sell" is suitable for printing here.
This week was no different. The immediate reaction to what Greenspan says is almost always to sell. Only later, after laboriously deconstructing his text, can the market conclude what he actually said.
The result is usually a reversal of the earlier losses, because often what he has to say is good news, such as that deflation is dead and inflation is weak, or the economy is strong, and so forth.
If ever a messenger would get shot for being the bearer of good news, it would be the Chairman.
Returns for Week Ended April 23
Gilder Technology Index (GTI): +
2.1%
Nasdaq
Composite Index (NSD): + 2.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): + 0.5%