04/21/06

Commentary:  Tasty Pudding

It's early yet, but it's shaping up to be a good
earnings season.

I love the excitement of earnings season. Every
day is a new day. Every day has the potential for
joy. You never know what will happen. Promise
is in the air.

It's more fun than the rest of the year, when we
plod along in the dark, hoping for good news
from the Fed, or from the economy, or from any
of the other arcane sources that have so much
to say about our progress.

When you come down to it, earnings are all that
matter. The right to future earnings is the product
we buy and sell in the stock market. Everything
else is noise. It's just something we employ in
our futile quest to forecast future earnings.

Earnings season is proof time. It's when we get
to see how our hopes and theories stack up
against reality. Instead of worrying about what
might happen, we find out what did happen. As
the proverb says, the proof of the pudding is in
the eating.

So far the pudding is pretty tasty, at least until the
market got spooked Friday afternoon. Earnings
are never the whole story, alas.

And next week, maybe the pudding will be
mm-mm good. You never know. That's why
I like earnings season.

The Week Day by Day:
 


Tuesday carried the week. We can't complain.
And it's always gratifying to leave the NASDAQ
in the dust.

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 MVIS + 17.6%   BWNG - 11.6% 
 ENER + 8.4%   IKAN - 5.4% 
 TXN + 8.1%   S - 3.3% 
 CPHD + 8.1%   INTC - 2.0% 
 LNOP + 7.3%   SYNA - 1.2% 

Honorable mention to GLW, plus 7.2%.

Returns for the Week
:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 2.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 1.7%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  26.6%  6.2% 5.0%
Avg for 9+ yrs  12.6%  6.6% 6.3%
Last 52 wks 58% 21% 14%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 72% - 54% - 14%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
371% 110% 69%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6%   - 3.3%  
2005 11.1%   4.2%  
2006 to date 6.3%   35.8%  
Avg for 2+ yrs 12.7%   14.6%  

Room to Grow:

  GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the
high to the low
94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss
recovered
23%   31%   71%  
Return needed
for a new high
257%   115%   16%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.  

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

8%

 

GLW

48%

 

QCOM

20%

ALTR

15%

 

IKAN

32%

 

S

8%

AMD

4%

 

INTC

- 23%

 

SIGM

- 11%

BRCM

39%

 

KEYW

31%

 

SMI

14%

BWNG

120%

 

LNOP

91%

 

SYNA

1%

CPHD

10%

 

MVIS

4%

 

TSM

9%

ENER *

11%

 

NETL

56%

 

TXN

10%

EQIX

41%

 

NSM

14%

 

XLNX

6%

FLEX

6%

 

PCMS *

- 4%

 

ZRAN

35%

FNSR

132%

 

PWER

32%

     

(*) Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PCMS 4/7).
     Return is for period in GTI only.

 

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 
Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 29 companies in the GTI.
They are listed, with year-to-date returns,
at the bottom of the left hand column.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
8 up, 21 down, 0 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 2.8%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 10 of 16 63%