4/13/2006

Commentary:  Happy Easter

The end of the week snuck up on me, coming as
it did a day early. It found me unprepared, with
nothing written for this space.

You might think I was just afraid to show my face
after my ebullience of a week ago turned out this
week to be so much bull. No, those of us who go
out on a limb must be prepared to look foolish.

The dog didn't eat my homework, but I have been
busy this week. There were glitches in my FiOS
installation that were keeping me from enjoying
the promised speed of 30Mbps up and 5Mbps
down. That now seems to be behind me. Those
bandwidth sites that are capable of measuring
such fat pipes now reassure me that I'm getting
the full 30Mbps. Unfortunately, most sites in the
internet today seem unable to produce download
data any faster than around 5 or 6 Mbps, so much
of my bandwidth is going to waste.

As I said last week, there's room to grow.

And as I said above, Happy Easter.

The Week Day by Day:
 

It was looking pretty bad there for a while, but by
week's end things were looking up. Let's hope
the earnings reports that will soon be here can
sustain the momentum.

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 SYNA + 8.3%   MVIS - 8.9% 
 NETL + 6.6%   BWNG - 7.7% 
 GLW + 3.5%   LNOP - 6.0% 
 TSM + 1.2%   AMD - 5.6% 
 INTC + 1.1%   SIGM - 5.1% 

Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.5%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.6%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.5%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5%  1% 3%
2006 to date  23.7%  5.5% 3.3%
Avg for 9+ yrs  12.3%  6.5% 6.1%
Last 52 wks 58% 22% 13%
Since the high
of 3/06/00		 - 73% - 54% - 16%
Since the low
of 10/09/02		 361% 109% 66%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends		 Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6% - 3.3%
2005 11.1% 4.2%
2006 to date 5.0% 33.2%
Avg for 2+ yrs 12.2% 13.7%

Room to Grow:

  GTI NSD S&P
Loss from the
high to the low		 94%   78%   49%  
% of the loss
recovered		 23%   31%   68%  
Return needed
for a new high		 266%   117%   18%  

Graph of the GTI's long recovery attempt.  

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

7%

GLW

38%

QCOM

20%

ALTR

11%

IKAN

39%

S

12%

AMD

4%

INTC

- 22%

SIGM

- 11%

BRCM

40%

KEYW

27%

SMI

10%

BWNG

149%

LNOP

78%

SYNA

3%

CPHD

1%

MVIS

- 12%

TSM

6%

ENER *

3%

NETL

55%

TXN

2%

EQIX

41%

NSM

10%

XLNX

5%

FLEX

3%

PCMS *

- 5%

ZRAN

32%

FNSR

122%

PWER   

25%

    

(*) Joined list this year (ENER 2/10, PCMS 4/7).
     Return is for time in GTI only.

 

 

 The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:




Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 
Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 29 companies in the GTI.
They are listed, with year-to-date returns,
at the bottom of the left hand column.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
8 up, 21 down, 0 unchanged.

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 2.9%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
 


Year		 Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 9 of 15 60%