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April 15, 2005

Dick Sears: Weekly Commentary
Down in the Dumps

Except for a rare but welcome sign of life
from Broadwing (BWNG), which swam
against the tide to a gain of 8%, it was
a truly depressing week. The GTI is at
a 7-1/2 month low.

Just think, three weeks ago I predicted
that we had hit bottom. Such hubris!
Nevertheless, I consider myself bloody
but unbowed.

But there is one thing that worries me.
I believe the market always knows what's
afoot, even if, as individuals, none of us
has a clue.

In this case, something is obviously
eating at the market. Is it possible, as
some suggest, that it has gone from
worrying about inflation to worrying
about a slowdown, without even a
pause in between, let alone a rally?

What an awful thought! No wonder
the market's depressed.

Returns for Week Ended April 15:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 6.5%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 4.6%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 3.3%

Historical Returns:

  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 17.7% - 12.3% - 5.7%
Avg for 8+ yrs  7.8%  4.8% 5.4%
Last 52 wks - 19%  - 4% 1%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 83% - 62% - 25%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
192% 71% 47%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.


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