|
03/31/06
Commentary:
Joining the Fun
Until this week, I hadn't made any portfolio
changes in quite a while. At my age security is
important, so my portfolio tends to be stodgy,
at least for a Gilder investor. In three weeks I'm
even buying an immediate
life annuity with my
IRA. Where's the fun in that?
But I enjoy being part of the Gilder community,
and when our ship comes in, I want to be aboard.
So Tuesday I sold boring Intel (INTC) and bought
LanOptics (LNOP) and Broadwing (BWNG), two
of the more popular and risky stocks on the list.
(Hoping to get a head start on this commentary,
I wrote that paragraph on Wednesday. Little did I
know that LNOP would jump 18% on Thursday.
Now, at week's end, my LNOP/BWNG holding is
worth 11% more than the INTC would have been.
That's my idea of fun, one of them anyway.)
My Gilder portfolio is still conservative: QCOM,
NSM, GLW, KEYW, ALTR, ADI, XLNX, LNOP,
BWNG, and WAVX, in that order. But it should
have enough play to be fun in what lies ahead.
Speaking of fun, this week I changed from cable
internet access to a fiber optics connection from
Verizon FiOS. The new setup provides 30Mbps
downstream and 5Mbps up. It costs $54.95 per
month, with a free network and installation, even
though it involved hard-wiring two computers,
one on the first floor and one on the third.
I live in a remote community of only about 100
houses. Who'd have thought such a fat pipe
would be available here, and at such a price? The
30Mbps/5Mbps service was meant for business
and usually
costs $180 to $200 per month.
Now if I could only be so lucky with my stocks.
What am I talking about, am I crazy? Look at my
luck with LNOP. How quickly we forget.
The Week Day by
Day:

When interest rates surged on Tuesday,
stock
prices suffered as usual. It didn't bother me,
because I'll get a better annuity rate when I buy.
But then on Wednesday, both stocks and rates
soared. That's having your cake and eating it too.
The GTI beat the NASDAQ every day this week.
That's also fun.
The Week's Top Gainers and Losers
|
Gainers |
Losers |
| LNOP |
+ 35.3% |
AMD |
- 8.2% |
| MVIS |
+ 10.6% |
GLW |
- 2.7% |
| PWER |
+ 9.8% |
SYNA |
- 1.8% |
| EQIX |
+ 9.7% |
XLNX |
- 0.9% |
| NETL |
+ 9.3% |
INTC |
- 0.7% |
LNOP becomes the #3
GTI stock for 2006, up
86% year-to-date (see the chart at the bottom
of this column, which was new last week).
Returns for the Week:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
+ 3.9%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): + 1.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 0.6%
Historical Returns:
|
Period |
GTI |
NSD |
S&P |
|
1997 (est'd) |
21% |
22% |
31% |
|
1998 (est'd) |
48% |
40% |
27% |
|
1999 |
284% |
86% |
20% |
|
2000 |
- 44% |
- 39% |
- 10% |
|
2001 |
- 43% |
- 21% |
- 13% |
|
2002 |
- 56% |
- 32% |
- 23% |
|
2003 |
130% |
50% |
26% |
|
2004 |
3% |
9% |
9% |
|
2005 |
5.1% |
1.4% |
3.0% |
|
2006 to date |
23.1% |
6.1% |
3.7% |
|
Avg for 9+
yrs |
12.3% |
6.6% |
6.2% |
|
Last 52 wks |
47% |
18% |
10% |
Since the
high
of 3/06/00 |
- 73% |
- 54% |
- 15% |
Since the low
of 10/09/02 |
358% |
110% |
67% |
Comparison of Returns
for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:
| Year |
Do Pay
Dividends |
Do Not
Pay
Dividends |
| 2004 |
11.6% |
- 3.3% |
|
2005 |
11.1% |
4.2% |
|
2006 to date |
3.2% |
34.4% |
|
Avg for 2+ yrs |
11.6% |
14.4% |
Individual
Year-to-Date Returns:
|
ADI |
7% |
|
GLW |
37% |
|
QCOM |
18% |
|
ALTR |
11% |
|
IKAN |
34% |
|
S |
11% |
|
AMD |
8% |
|
INTC |
- 22% |
|
SIGM |
- 5% |
|
BRCM |
37% |
|
KEYW |
29% |
|
SMI |
11% |
|
BWNG |
144% |
|
LNOP |
86% |
|
SYNA |
- 11% |
|
CPHD |
4% |
|
MVIS |
- 19% |
|
TSM |
2% |
|
ENER |
7% |
|
NETL |
51% |
|
TXN |
1% |
|
EQIX |
58% |
|
NSM |
7% |
|
XLNX |
1% |
|
FLEX |
- 1% |
|
PWER |
20% |
|
ZRAN |
35% |
|
FNSR |
137% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Year to Date:

From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:

Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:

Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:
Makeup of the
GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
There are now 28 companies in the GTI. They
are listed by name (with year-to-date returns)
at the bottom of the left hand column.
Advances vs. Declines:
Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
19 up, 9 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility, Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows average
weekly change in the GTI
each year:
|
Year |
Ave Wkly
Change |
|
1999 |
4.2% |
|
2000 |
7.7% |
|
2001 |
8.5% |
|
2002 |
6.8% |
|
2003 |
4.3% |
|
2004 |
3.4% |
|
2005 |
2.1% |
|
2006 to date |
3.0% |
As an
indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
Year |
Number of Up
Weeks |
As a % |
|
1999 |
39 of
52 |
75% |
|
2000 |
24 of
52 |
46% |
|
2001 |
22 of 52 |
42% |
|
2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
|
2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
|
2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
|
2005 |
26 of
52 |
50% |
|
2006 to date |
8
of 13 |
62% |
The GTI
fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt. |