03/31/06

Commentary:  Joining the Fun

Until this week, I hadn't made any portfolio
changes in quite a while. At my age security is
important, so my portfolio tends to be stodgy,
at least for a Gilder investor. In three weeks I'm
even buying an immediate life annuity with my
IRA. Where's the fun in that?

But I enjoy being part of the Gilder community,
and when our ship comes in, I want to be aboard.

So Tuesday I sold boring Intel (INTC) and bought
LanOptics (LNOP) and Broadwing (BWNG), two
of the more popular and risky stocks on the list.

(Hoping to get a head start on this commentary,
I wrote that paragraph on Wednesday. Little did I
know  that LNOP would jump 18% on Thursday.
Now, at week's end, my LNOP/BWNG holding is
worth 11% more than the INTC would have been.
That's my idea of fun, one of them anyway.)

My Gilder portfolio is still conservative: QCOM,
NSM, GLW, KEYW, ALTR, ADI, XLNX, LNOP,
BWNG, and WAVX, in that order. But it should
have enough play to be fun in what lies ahead.

Speaking of fun, this week I changed from cable
internet access to a fiber optics connection from
Verizon FiOS.
The new setup provides 30Mbps
downstream and 5Mbps up. It costs $54.95 per
month, with a free network and installation, even
though it involved hard-wiring two computers,
one on the first floor and one on the third.

I live in a remote community of only about 100
houses. Who'd have thought such a fat pipe
would be available here, and at such a price? The
30Mbps/5Mbps service was meant for business
and usually costs $180 to $200 per month.

Now if I could only be so lucky with my stocks.

What am I talking about, am I crazy? Look at my
luck with LNOP. How quickly we forget.

The Week Day by Day:
 


When interest rates surged on Tuesday, stock
prices suffered as usual. It didn't bother me,
because I'll get a better annuity rate when I buy.
But then on Wednesday, both stocks and rates
soared. That's having your cake and eating it too.

The GTI beat the NASDAQ every day this week.
That's also fun.

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 LNOP + 35.3%   AMD - 8.2% 
 MVIS + 10.6%   GLW - 2.7% 
 PWER + 9.8%   SYNA - 1.8% 
 EQIX + 9.7%   XLNX - 0.9% 
 NETL + 9.3%   INTC - 0.7% 

LNOP becomes the #3 GTI stock for 2006, up
86% year-to-date (see the chart at the bottom
of this column, which was new last week).

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 3.9%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 1.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.6%


Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5.1%  1.4% 3.0%
2006 to date  23.1%  6.1% 3.7%
Avg for 9+ yrs  12.3%  6.6% 6.2%
Last 52 wks 47% 18% 10%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 73% - 54% - 15%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
358% 110% 67%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6% - 3.3%
2005 11.1% 4.2%
2006 to date 3.2% 34.4%
Avg for 2+ yrs 11.6% 14.4%

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

7%

 

GLW

37%

QCOM

18%

ALTR

11%

 

IKAN

34%

S

11%

AMD

8%

 

INTC

- 22%

SIGM

- 5%

BRCM

37%

 

KEYW

29%

SMI

11%

BWNG

144%

 

LNOP

86%

SYNA

- 11%

CPHD

4%

 

MVIS

- 19%

TSM

2%

ENER

7%

 

NETL

51%

TXN

1%

EQIX

58%

 

NSM

7%

XLNX

1%

FLEX

- 1%

 

PWER

20%

ZRAN

35%

FNSR

137%

         

 

 

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 
Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 28 companies in the GTI. They
are listed by name (with year-to-date returns)
at the bottom of the left hand column.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
19 up, 9 down, 0 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 3.0%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 8 of 13 62%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its long recovery attempt.