3/24/06

Commentary:  Don't Forget To Write

But first, take a look at the table all the way down
at the bottom of this column. It shows the return
of the GTI dividend payers compared to that of
the non dividend payers.

In 2004 and 2005, the dividend payers were
significantly outperforming the market, while the
non payers were having a hard time. In 2006, the
shoe is on the other foot, to the point that the
non dividend payers are now ahead cumulatively
(bottom row of table is new today).

Surely this is a good sign for the Telecosm.

Companies that don't pay dividends are almost
always smaller and riskier than those that do.
When the market starts buying the Broadwings
and the EZChips, it means they are now seen as
likely survivors and good bets to succeed.

They may not be priced like Qualcomm yet, but
they're no longer priced like WorldCom.

Hell, Alcatel and Lucent, two of GG's exes, want
to get together, so that the former can have the
benefit of the latter's CDMA expertise. Someone's
betting on the Telecosm!

So, congratulations to all those who have had the
courage to hang on during hard times, especially
you Broadwing investors (up 144% YTD). Faith in
GG's long-shot picks is paying off again.

Meanwhile, we're only a week or two from a
new earnings season, and I've heard few if any
warnings. That's another good sign.

Now, getting back to my headline, last week I
asked the Gilder Forum for feedback on the GTI:
how often do you visit the site; what about it do
you like or not like; is there any other information
you might like? Or what is your favorite color?
(Just kidding.)

The answers were interesting and helpful, and
I thank all those who took the time to respond.

I'd now like to extend the request to people who
don't go to the Forum, or who missed it there.
If you would send an email with your answers
to the questions above, I'd be very grateful.

One suggestion that came in last week (by email,
so perhaps it was unrelated to my request) was
for a weekly table of individual year-to-date
returns. Good idea! Here it is, as of today:

Individual Year-to-Date Returns:

ADI

7%

 

GLW

41%

 

QCOM

15%

ALTR

12%

 

IKAN

31%

 

S

10%

AMD

18%

 

INTC

- 21%

 

SIGM

- 11%

BRCM

38%

 

KEYW

24%

 

SMI

9%

BWNG

144%

 

LNOP

38%

 

SYNA

- 9%

CPHD

1%

 

MVIS

- 26%

 

TSM

- 3%

ENER

- 2%

 

NETL

38%

 

TXN

- 4%

EQIX

44%

 

NSM

5%

 

XLNX

2%

FLEX

- 2%

 

PWER

9%

 

ZRAN

26%

FNSR

138%

           

I'll update this table every week. It's going to
make it a little more difficult to meet the 4:30
deadline, which I hereby change to 4:30-ish.
In the future, you'll find the table all the way
down at the bottom of this column.

And don't forget to write!


The Week Day by Day:
 


In Spring a young man's fancy lightly turns to
thoughts of love. That applies to old men too,
but we also fancy stock market gains, and we
got some of those this week too. I also fancy
seeing the GTI beat the NASDAQ, which it
pulled off virtually every day this week.

The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 BWNG + 16.2%   SIGM - 9.8% 
 LNOP + 7.5%   IKAN - 7.4% 
 AMD + 6.4%   BRCM - 3.4% 
 ENER + 6.3%   QCOM - 2.8% 
 NETL + 5.3%   SYNA - 2.4% 

There they go again, Broadwing and
LanOptics (E. Z. Chip).

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  + 1.7%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.3%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.3%


Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5.1%  1.4% 3.0%
2006 to date  18.5%  4.9% 4.4%
Avg for 9+ yrs  11.9%  6.5% 6.3%
Last 52 wks 38% 15% 10%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 74% - 54% - 15%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
341% 108% 68%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6% - 3.3%
2005 11.1% 4.2%
2006 to date 1.3% 28.7%
Avg for 2+ yrs 10.8% 12.4%

 

 

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 
Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 28 companies in the GTI. They
are listed by name (with year-to-date returns)
at the bottom of the left hand column.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
17 up, 10 down, 1 unchanged.


Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 3.0%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 7 of 12 58%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details of its lon