Gilder
Technology Index (GTI)
Dick Sears
Friday, March 18, 2005
Weekly Update: The Beating Goes
On.
24 of the GTI's 28 stocks finished in the
red last week. When is this slump ever
going to end? When is the market going
to resume its inexorable march upward?
In the prolonged crash of Oughty-ought,
we were told that the market would begin
to recover once we all "capitulated". We
had to throw in the towel, give up the
ghost, cry uncle, abandon all hope.
It took a while to stifle the optimism bred
by the five boom years of 1995-1999. But
we followed our orders, and by the end
of 2000 we had duly given up hope. Yet it
took almost two more years to reach the
bottom. Capitulation didn't help.
The winning strategy is probably patience.
As my friend Victor Niederhoffer is fond of
pointing out, equities average a return of
more than one million percent a century.
There's no reason to think that this
century will be any different.
We're in a strong economy, in a world of
increasing freedom. Every day there are
more haves and fewer have-nots. Greater
prosperity is unstoppable.
All we have to do is wait, and maybe only
a couple of weeks, since a new earnings
season is almost upon us.
Returns
for Week Ended March
18:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
- 3.3%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 1.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 0.9%
This past week
there were 28 companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:
4 up, 24 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility,
Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows
average
weekly change in the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Ave Wkly
Change |
|
1999 |
4.2% |
|
2000 |
7.7% |
|
2001 |
8.5% |
|
2002 |
6.8% |
|
2003 |
4.3% |
|
2004 |
3.4% |
|
2005 to
Date |
2.4% |
As an indication of trend,
this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number
of Up Weeks |
As a % |
|
1999 |
39 of
52 |
75% |
|
2000 |
24 of
52 |
46% |
|
2001 |
22 of 52 |
42% |
|
2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
|
2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
|
2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
|
2005 to
Date |
4
of
11 |
36% |
The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6,
2000, high
to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the
details of its long recovery attempt.
|