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Gilder Technology Index (GTI)
Dick Sears
Friday, March 18, 2005
 

Weekly Update:  The Beating Goes On.

24 of the GTI's 28 stocks finished in the
red last week. When is this slump ever
going to end? When is the market going
to resume its inexorable march upward?

In the prolonged crash of Oughty-ought,
we were told that the market would begin
to recover once we all "capitulated". We
had to throw in the towel, give up the
ghost, cry uncle, abandon all hope.

It took a while to stifle the optimism bred
by the five boom years of 1995-1999. But
we followed our orders, and by the end
of 2000 we had duly given up hope. Yet it
took almost two more years to reach the
bottom. Capitulation didn't help.

The winning strategy is probably patience.
As my friend Victor Niederhoffer is fond of
pointing out, equities average a return of
more than one million percent a century.
There's no reason to think that this
century will be any different.

We're in a strong economy, in a world of
increasing freedom. Every day there are
more haves and fewer have-nots. Greater
prosperity is unstoppable.

All we have to do is wait, and maybe only
a couple of weeks, since a new earnings
season is almost upon us.

Returns for Week Ended March 18:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 3.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 1.7%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.9%

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

4 up, 24 down, 0 unchanged.

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows
a
verage weekly change in the GTI each year:
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 to Date 2.4%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:

Year Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 to Date 4 of 11 36%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000, high
to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here for the
details of its long recovery attempt.