Gilder
Technology Index (GTI)
Dick Sears
Friday, March 11, 2005
Weekly Update: Winter Hangs On. And
On.
Another dreary week, except that the widely
held GTI stocks Qualcomm (QCOM) and
National Semiconductor (NSM) were up 5.2%
and 3.6%, respectively. NSM is now up 16%
for the year. The only GTI stock to do better
is Terayon (TERN), up 21%.
But we can't seem to get anything started.
From time to time it looks as if a rally might
be in the offing, but then it disappears in
the mist.
As I said last week, I'm pinning my hopes
on the change of seasons.
According to the groundhog, winter ends
five days from now, on March 16. If that
doesn't do the trick, our next shot is four
days later, March 20, the vernal equinox.
If neither date provides the needed boost,
our next chance will come eleven days
later, when March is scheduled to go out
like a lamb.
Returns
for Week Ended March 11:
Gilder Technology Index (GTI):
- 2.2%
Nasdaq Composite
Index (NSD): - 1.4%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): - 1.8%
Historical Returns:
|
|
GTI |
NSD |
S&P |
|
1997
(est'd) |
21% |
22% |
31% |
|
1998
(est'd) |
48% |
40% |
27% |
|
1999 |
284% |
86% |
20% |
|
2000 |
- 44% |
- 39% |
- 10% |
|
2001 |
- 43% |
- 21% |
- 13% |
|
2002 |
- 56% |
- 32% |
- 23% |
|
2003 |
130% |
50% |
26% |
|
2004 |
3% |
9% |
9% |
|
2005 to
Date |
- 8.0% |
- 6.2% |
- 1.0% |
|
Avg for
8+ yrs |
9.4% |
5.8% |
6.1 % |
|
Last 52
wks |
- 12% |
3% |
7% |
Since the
high
of 3/06/00 |
- 81% |
- 60% |
- 21% |
Since the
low
of 10/09/02 |
226% |
83% |
54% |
Makeup of
the GTI:
The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.
This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:
9 up, 19 down, 0 unchanged.
Volatility,
Trend, Recovery:
As an indication of volatility, this table shows
average weekly change
in the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Ave Wkly
Change |
|
1999 |
4.2% |
|
2000 |
7.7% |
|
2001 |
8.5% |
|
2002 |
6.8% |
|
2003 |
4.3% |
|
2004 |
3.4% |
|
2005 to
Date |
2.3% |
As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year:
|
Year |
Number
of Up Weeks |
As a % |
|
1999 |
39 of
52 |
75% |
|
2000 |
24 of
52 |
46% |
|
2001 |
22 of 52 |
42% |
|
2002 |
19
of 52 |
37% |
|
2003 |
31
of 53 |
58% |
|
2004 |
28
of 52 |
54% |
|
2005 to
Date |
4
of 10 |
40% |
The
GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000, high
to its October 9, 2002, low.
Click here
for the
details of its long recovery attempt.
|
(address is not clickable)