2/24/06

Commentary:  Rock and Roll

I don't have much to say this week.

What else ain't new?

Well, look, if you follow this site, you know I don't
know beans about technology, and I've never
claimed that I did.

Nor do I have any special understanding of the
stock market. At least I have the grace to admit it,
unlike most pundits. Let's face it, if anyone has
figured out the stock market, he isn't writing
about it. He's quietly cashing in.

No, I'm just a humble statistician, at your service.
I can't write about the market or the technology.
So what else is there?

When I started
this site, it was all numbers and
graphs, with no commentary, but over the years
I've loosened up. Nowadays I seek to fill this
space by writing on subjects that occur to me, no
matter how far off topic they may be. I hope you
find it entertaining, but if not, I hope you'll stick
around anyway for the statistics and the graphs.

Now let's go back to the "what else ain't new?"
remark. That's a line that has always tickled me.
I heard it at a rock concert years ago. Bonnie
Bramlett, of Delaney and Bonnie, shouted it from
the stage, after someone in the audience had
yelled out, "Bonnie, you're stoned."

I used to love going to rock concerts, especially
the Grateful Dead, starting in 1970. In those days,
concerts took place in intimate venues, like the
Capitol Theater in Port Chester, NY, which was a
typical, old-fashioned, suburban movie theater.
Just look at their lineup from the early 70's. My
office was a half-hour's drive to Port Chester, but
my local head shop always had plenty of tickets
in the first ten rows.

At the Capitol and elsewhere I saw the Grateful
Dead, the Band, the Stones, the Airplane, the
Who, Derek and the Dominos, Pink Floyd, Janice
Joplin. Delaney and Bonnie were particular
favorites. My number one album of all time is
Delaney and Bonnie on tour with Eric Clapton.


The high point of my rock and roll career came in
1982, when I co-produced  "Dead at the Downs"
in Santa Fe:



Tune in next week, as I struggle once again to fill
this space.


The Week's Top Gainers and Losers

Gainers Losers
 FNSR + 11.3%   ZRAN - 9.3% 
 EQIX + 7.7%   IKAN - 7.9% 
 ENER + 7.7%   CPHD - 7.3% 
 KEYW + 3.7%   SIGM - 6.2% 
 FLEX + 2.9%   TXN - 5.7% 

Ikanos (IKAN) had a tough week, but it's still the
top GTI stock for 2006.

The Week Day by Day:
 


Once again the week got off to a bad start and
we had to play catch-up. The GTI never did get
back to even. What can the bulls be doing over
the weekend that makes them so logy when
they return to the office?

Returns for the Week:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 0.9%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  + 0.2%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 0.2%

Historical Returns:

Period GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005   5.1%  1.4% 3.0%
2006 to date  13.9%  3.7% 3.3%
Avg for 9+ yrs  11.5%  6.4% 6.2%
Last 52 wks 27% 11% 6%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 75% - 55% - 16%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
324% 105% 66%

Comparison of Returns for GTI Stocks
By Whether or Not They Pay Dividends:

Year Do Pay
Dividends
Do Not Pay
Dividends
2004 11.6% - 3.3%
2005 11.1% 4.2%
2006 to date 0.8% 19.3%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

There are now 28 companies in the GTI.

Advances vs. Declines:

Among the GTI stocks this week, there were
9 up, 18 down, 1 unchanged.

 

The Year to Date:




From the GTI's Origin (1/1/99) to Now:




Weekly Change in the GTI, Last 52 Weeks:





Trailing 3-Month Returns, Last 52 Weeks:


 

Volatility, Trend, Recovery:

As an indication of volatility, this table shows a
verage weekly change in the GTI
each year:
 
Year Ave Wkly Change
1999 4.2%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.5%
2002 6.8%
2003 4.3%
2004 3.4%
2005 2.1%
2006 to date 3.0%

As an indication of trend, this table shows
number of up weeks for the GTI each year
:
 


Year
Number of Up Weeks
As a %
1999 39 of 52 75%
2000 24 of 52 46%
2001 22 of 52 42%
2002 19 of 52 37%
2003 31 of 53 58%
2004 28 of 52 54%
2005 26 of 52 50%
2006 to date 4 of 8 50%

The GTI fell 94.1% from its March 6, 2000,
high to its October 9, 2002, low.  Click here
for the details