Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

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Weekly Update:  Another Dreary Week

It started out well. Then it reverted to what
has become the norm this year. Day after
dreary day, it seems, the market refuses
to go up.

The economic news continues to be
generally good, but to no effect. There
must be something we're all missing.

Only 7 of the 28 GTI stocks managed a gain
for the week. Terayon (TERN) was up 16%,
and Broadwing (BWNG) was up 11%, but
that was pretty much all the good news to
be had, unless you include Cepheid (CPHD),
which was up 8%.

For the year, only TERN has made a good
showing. It is up 28%, our only double
digit gain.

On the other side of the ledger, we have
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) down 44%, Lanoptics
(LNOP) down 33%, Broadwing (BWNG)
down 32%, Power-One (PWER) down 28%,
Synaptics (SYNA) down 28%, Advanced
Micro Devices (AMD) down 23%, Netlogic
Microsystems (NETL), which has been in
the GTI for only three weeks, down 18%,
the mighty Qualcomm (QCOM) down 18%,
and Microvision (MVIS) down 18%.

Come on, guys, let's settle down and start
putting some points on the board.

Returns for Week Ended February 18:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.4%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.9%
S&P 500 Index (S&P):  - 0.2%

Historical Returns:
  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 7.8% - 5.4%  - 0.9%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.5%  5.9% 6.1%
Last 52 wks - 13%  1% 5%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 81% - 59% - 21%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
227% 85% 55%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

7 up, 21 down, 0 unchanged.