Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

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Weekly Update:  Welcome Turnaround

I was about ready to throw in the towel and
look for a more rewarding pursuit than this
villainous market.

After our first good outing of the year last
week, the market turned brutal. An early
5-point gain in the NASDAQ on Monday
ended up as a 5-point loss. On Tuesday an
early 14-point gain finished as only a 5-point
gain. On Wednesday an early gain became
an horrendous 34-point loss. When on
Thursday an early 7-point gain fizzled into a
13-point loss by mid-morning, I didn't know
how much longer I could take it.

But then the sun came out. Thursday's
13-point loss ended as a small gain, and
then an early 13-point loss on Friday turned
into a pleasant 24-point gain by day's end.

The big disappointment for Gilderites was
Synaptics (SYNA), which was down 43%
for the week. It went from being the number
one GTI stock of 2005 (up 29%) to one of the
worst (down 26%). To make matters worse,
as Mike Sanders trenchantly observed in the
Gilder Forum, SYNA's long time ace in the
hole Foveon is looking more like Foveoff.

On the plus side has been a resurgence of
the semiconductor stocks. National Semi
(NSM) is up 20% over the last three weeks
and is now one of the GTI's three leading
stocks for the year, up 7%.

Because of the afore-mentioned SYNA,
the GTI finished the week with a loss, but
once again there seems reason for hope.

Returns for Week Ended February 11:

Gilder Technology Index (GTI):  - 1.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index (NSD):  - 0.5%
S&P 500 Index (S&P): 
+ 0.2%

Historical Returns:
  GTI    NSD  S&P 
1997 (est'd) 21% 22% 31%
1998 (est'd) 48% 40%  27%
1999 284% 86%  20%
2000 - 44% - 39% - 10%
2001  - 43% - 21%  - 13%
2002 - 56% - 32% - 23%
2003  130% 50% 26%
2004   3% 9%    9%
2005 to Date  - 6.5% - 4.5%  - 0.6%
Avg for 8+ yrs  9.7%  6.0% 6.2%
Last 52 wks - 13%  1% 5%
Since the high
of 3/06/00
- 80% - 59% - 21%
Since the low
of 10/09/02
231% 86% 55%

Makeup of the GTI:

The GTI companies are those "Telecosm
Technologies" in the Gilder Technology
Report whose stock is readily available to
investors. If a company is not traded on the
NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ National Market,
it is not in the GTI.

This past week there were 28 companies in
the GTI. Advances vs. declines were:

15 up, 13 down, 0 unchanged.